热点思考 | 人民币升值，“结汇潮”的助推？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB is not primarily driven by "settlement" but rather influenced by a weaker USD and central bank interventions, with settlement rates showing a decline rather than an increase [2][3][4]. Group 1: RMB Appreciation and Settlement - Since mid-October, the RMB has appreciated significantly by 1.42% against the USD, while the USD index only weakened by 0.34%. This has sparked discussions about a potential "year-end settlement wave" [3][4]. - Despite the RMB's appreciation, the settlement rate has decreased from 63.1% in September to 54.1% in October and 52.0% in November, indicating that the expected settlement wave has not materialized [3][4][8]. - Various indicators suggest that a settlement wave typically leads to higher swap points, increased RMB transaction volumes, and reduced foreign exchange deposits. However, since November, swap point spreads have decreased from 97 pips to 36 pips, and foreign exchange deposits have continued to grow [3][4][19]. Group 2: Year-End Settlement Patterns - Historically, "year-end settlement" tends to occur in December due to increased current account income, but improvements in settlement rates are not significant. The growth in settlement amounts is attributed to concentrated export receipts in Q4, significant increases in primary and secondary income, and slight increases in settlement rates [4][19]. - The changes in year-end settlement rates are influenced by prior RMB performance and the timing of the Spring Festival. When the RMB strengthens, the selling rate typically declines, while improvements in settlement rates often lag by 1-2 quarters [4][55]. Group 3: Potential for RMB to Break "7" - A delayed settlement wave may provide some short-term support for the RMB, with historical data indicating that after two consecutive quarters of appreciation, settlement rates tend to improve. The upcoming Spring Festival may also extend this improvement into January [4][77]. - However, risks associated with a potential USD rebound and central bank interventions may affect the pace at which the RMB breaks the "7" level. Current non-commercial short positions in the USD have reached a record high, indicating a risk of reversal [4][88].