热点思考 | “返乡潮”提前了吗？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The current high level of human flow is not primarily due to a "return home tide," as the flow is stable rather than exhibiting the typical pulse-like increase associated with such a phenomenon [2][3][8] - The national migration index remains at a high level of approximately 15.3% year-on-year, contrasting with previous years where significant declines were observed post-National Day [2][8] - The recent decline in industrial production and infrastructure investment has led to reduced labor demand, prompting many workers to return home earlier than usual [2][8][19] Group 2 - The sustained high level of human flow is supported by several factors, including the introduction of autumn holiday policies, increased business travel, and warmer winter weather [4][5][33] - Multiple regions, including Sichuan and Zhejiang, have implemented autumn holiday policies that significantly boost residents' willingness to travel, with migration indices showing substantial increases compared to the first half of the year [4][33][35] - Business travel has increased, particularly to major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, with domestic and international flight numbers rising by approximately 2% and 10% year-on-year, respectively [4][46][47] Group 3 - High levels of human flow are expected to drive service consumption, particularly in sectors like dining and accommodation, indicating a robust service consumption environment [6][64][100] - The migration index has historically aligned with retail sales growth, but recent trends show that while human flow remains high, retail sales growth is declining, suggesting that service consumption may be more resilient than goods consumption [6][64][100] - There is a notable shift in consumption patterns from goods to services, driven by economic development stages and demographic trends, with potential for significant growth in service consumption in the coming year [6][76][100]