国内高频 | 外贸高频边际回落（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1: Industrial Production and Construction - Industrial production continues to show weakness, with blast furnace operating rates and steel apparent consumption lower than the same period last year. For the week of December 14 to December 20, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.1% week-on-week and increased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to -1.1%. Steel apparent consumption fell by 0.5% week-on-week and increased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year to -4.1% [1][13] - The steel social inventory continues to decline, down 3.7% week-on-week [1]. - In the construction sector, cement production and demand remain weak, with a decrease in inventory. The national grinding operating rate fell by 2.5% week-on-week and increased by 2.3 percentage points year-on-year to 2.4%. Cement shipment rates decreased by 1.7% week-on-week and fell by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to -2.3% [25][29]. Group 2: Petrochemical and Consumption Chains - The petrochemical chain shows marginal improvement, while the consumption chain remains relatively weak. For the week of December 14 to December 20, the soda ash operating rate decreased by 1.6% week-on-week and increased by 4.3 percentage points year-on-year to 0.9%. The PTA operating rate remained flat compared to the previous week, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3 percentage points to -8.4% [13][17]. - In the downstream consumption chain, the operating rate of polyester filament increased by 0.2% week-on-week but decreased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to -0.4%. The operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires showed weak performance, decreasing by 0.2% week-on-week and falling by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to -7.7% [13]. Group 3: Real Estate and Transportation - The transaction volume in the real estate market continues to be low, with major cities experiencing weaker performance. For the week of December 14 to December 20, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 15.4% week-on-week and increased by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year to -28.5% [49]. - The cargo throughput at ports has decreased, but remains higher than the same period last year. For the week of December 8 to December 14, railway cargo volume and highway truck traffic both saw a decline, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to -2.1% and down 1.7 percentage points year-on-year to -2.1%, respectively [61][68]. Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are showing divergence, with pork and vegetable prices declining by 0.3% week-on-week, while fruit and egg prices increased by 1.7% and 0.2%, respectively [103]. - The industrial product price index has seen a decline, with the Nanhua industrial product price index decreasing [116].