Liquidity - Gold prices reached a new high since November 2025, with the current price at $4,341 per ounce [4] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for November 2025 is 52.50, up 0.17% month-on-month [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.1 percentage points in November 2025, down 1.10 percentage points month-on-month [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces has been below the same period last year for three consecutive weeks [5] - Price changes this week include rebar up 2.15%, cement price index up 0.35%, rubber up 1.01%, and iron ore up 1.27% [5] - National capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, and asphalt are down 0.99 percentage points, 1.56 percentage points, and up 9.0 percentage points respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - Titanium dioxide gross profit is at a low level, with a gross profit of -1,795 yuan per ton [6] - Prices for titanium dioxide and glass remained unchanged this week, with flat glass operating rate at 73.99% [6] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at the median level for the past five years [7] - Major commodity price performance this week includes cold-rolled steel down 0.95%, copper down 1.37%, and aluminum down 1.04% [8] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is 71.39%, down 0.18 percentage points [8] Subcategories - Tungsten concentrate prices reached a new high since 2012, with a price of 433,000 yuan per ton, up 15.78% week-on-week [9] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21,840 yuan per ton, down 1.04%, with estimated profit at 4,608 yuan per ton (excluding tax), down 3.16% [9] - The price of electrolytic copper is 92,680 yuan per ton, down 1.37% [9] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.05 this week, with the price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel at -30 yuan per ton [10] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 450 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan per ton [10] - The price ratio of stainless steel hot-rolled to electrolytic nickel is 0.11 [10] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in November is 47.60%, up 1.7 percentage points month-on-month [11] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is 1,124.73 points this week, up 0.60% [11] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 76.50%, up 0.80 percentage points [11] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.28%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being chemicals, up 2.58% [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the PB of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 34.35% and 97.80% respectively [12] - The current PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 0.51, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [12]
【钢铁】热轧与螺纹钢的价差处于6年同期最低水平——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.12.15-12.21） （王招华/戴默）
光大证券研究·2025-12-22 23:05