AI后周期的两个确定性方向

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a new trend in the market, driven by advancements in AI technology, particularly focusing on the M9 material and the rising prices of optical fiber rods as key investment opportunities [1]. Group 1: Breakthrough in Quantity - The M9 material, essential for high-end computing substrates, is set to experience significant growth due to the deployment of Nvidia's Rubin architecture and Google's TPU products, expected to reach a tipping point by 2025 [1]. - Q fabric, a core component of M9 material, is facing an expanding supply-demand gap, with price expectations for domestic Q fabric projected to rise to 250-300 RMB per square meter by 2026, up from a previous estimate of 200-250 RMB [1]. - Core companies in this sector include China National Materials (leading domestic Q fabric producer) and Feilihua (leading quartz material company) [2]. Group 2: Price Recovery - The optical fiber market is undergoing a structural change driven by AI, with demand expected to grow significantly; global optical fiber demand is projected to reach approximately 600 million core kilometers by 2025, with AI-related demand increasing from 5% to 10% annually [3]. - The supply side is constrained by the production of optical rods, which are essential for fiber production and face high technical barriers, leading to a strong likelihood of price increases [4]. - Historical data shows that previous supply constraints led to significant price increases in the optical fiber market, indicating a potential for similar trends in the current AI-driven environment [5]. - Key companies in the optical fiber sector include Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (leading in optical fiber and rod production) and Hengtong Optic-Electric (integrated layout benefiting from both submarine cables and AI fiber demand) [5].