时间就这样，用风的姿态，在股市的沙丘上，写着无人能猜透的剧本。 股市像一片流动的沙丘，美得惊艳，也藏着恐怖的危险。 你看那道沙脊线，在风里舒展着弧度，像被精心勾勒的金边。风是耐心的手，把沙粒一粒一粒往上托， 堆出缓缓隆起的坡，越堆越高，越堆越高，仿佛要触到云影。 忽然有流沙簌簌滑落，像谁不小心碰倒了银盏，泼洒出甜美的玉液。又或者在某个瞬间，整片沙坡毫无 预兆地崩塌，轰鸣着倾泻，优美的轮廓眨眼间碎成粉末。 可风从不停歇。它又开始俯身，把散落在低处的沙粒重新聚拢，一粒又一粒，往高处吹去，又开始堆 积。沙丘静悄悄的，所有沙粒都在暗暗迁徙。 等一场风暴卷过，所有形态都换了模样。曾经刺破天际的尖顶可能摧成一片浅滩，而昨日不起眼的洼 地，或许已堆成遮天蔽日的丘峦。有些沙丘彻底消失了，像从未存在过；有些却在风的偏爱里，站成了 新的坐标。 ...

预先声明，本ID看法不一定正确，不要跟我杠，各安天命哈。 如上图VAD指标红圈所示，中周期动量已经达到一阶段最高值，此处折返既合理也正常。 同时正是由于中期动量满血达标，也说明平均股价指数所创的新高没有发生顶背离，由此推导： 整体牛市仍在，不存在大级别转折的隐患 。 更中庸一点的预期，要上升一个级别，即在60分钟级别上构造中枢，如下图： 那么这就意味着回撤幅度会略微大一些，如果从日K线看，至少要完成一笔至少5根K线（往往不止5根）的下跌过程，还原到日K线就是下面的图形，B中 枢大致就是重复A中枢的过程： 所以，即将发生的是波段节奏上的折返。情绪指标已经从轻微的背离导入快速掉落，并越过中线，说明大部分股票已经破掉了TR张力极限，大面积回撤 正在发生。与以往一样，往往是涨的时候就一小撮，跌的时候连片倒。 其它的佐证，比如光连的新龙出现超量长阴破位，领涨主线集体哑火，等等，此类现象需引起重视，有了赚头的不要飘。由于这一波热度积累较多，解体 后回落到冰点附近甚至以下也是不足为怪的。 后续调整级别以及结构的预期，先看15分钟级别的中枢构造，如下图： 这是一种比较乐观的预期，在15分钟级别上依托200均作横向延伸，消化获 ...

上次聊缠论时提到，这书的后面98篇都在讲如何低买高卖。那么这个高低的转折位置必定要有一个预判 方法，缠论称之为"背驰"，也就是常说的顶背离底背离。 这里本ID要介绍一种最简捷的判断规则： 比如确定一个底分型，要同时确定当下K线的最高价比前面两日中的最高价更高，以及当下K线的最低 价比前面两日中的最低价更高，这样底分型就成立了。这样说有点绕是不是，那就画个图看看，下图红 圈部分就是一个符合上述规则的底分型(见底结构)： 然而，有时候右侧的K线高点比不过左侧两根K线的高点怎么办，这时就需要用下一日的第四根K线确 认，如下图，红框内的三根K线有点像底分型，但是第三根K线的高点比不过前面两根K线的最高点， 有点弱，容易失败，所以这是一个不成熟的分型，那么就需要蓝框内的三根K线组合来确认，对照上面 剥去所有的长篇大论，方法上这就是最接地气的部分，也是本ID经常使用的部分。 缠论中的背驰是指动量背离。动量指标采用的是MACD，比如当股价创新低时，要同时满足MACD绿柱 峰峰缩短以及峰内绿柱也缩短，这就是底背驰了，那么顶背驰就是反过来演说一下。 通常做波段，需要在15分钟~30分钟级别去评估背离姿态，举个最近的例子： 强势 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying low-entry opportunities along the main trend line, highlighting that key turning points are revealed through breakouts, which are crucial for assessing market depth and breadth [1]. Group 1 - Breakout signals are significant for evaluating minimum resistance levels and understanding market dynamics, as they indicate potential reversals or upward movements [1]. - The article critiques the notion of solely relying on intuition for selecting breakout points, suggesting that this approach may lead to a win rate below 50% [1]. - Recent examples of low-entry opportunities are discussed, particularly in sectors like solid-state batteries and military industry stocks, which have shown notable gains [1].

冒一下头，井底超量首破年高公式 第二次提示CXO赛道，是这篇： 本ID首次提示CXO赛道，是这篇： 当然，这不是建议现在去追高，而是在CXO强势锚定的背景下，提前选择在支点或者支点后回调区域 介入，这么一个模式的再次解释。一个细分类别在初始突破一阶段，进入二阶段期间，股票会先后相继 突围，这是米讷维尼给出的经典总结，依此计而行必定大有斩获。 市场依然遵循幂律：少部分赛道和股票拥有高胜率。这是报酬递增正反馈自然规律导致的必然结果。 所以，一定要拨开日间轮动的重重幻影，看准真正的主线，才有可能形成有效的行为动机和信心。 大局观远比局部的量价技巧重要得多。不要成为图形的奴隶，一个在图形面前纠结徘徊的游魂，或者只 会刷选股公式的行尸走肉。 CXO格局已成，崭新的进攻型主线 现在已经汇溪成河，成为持续攻击的主导力量之一。 今天盘面上，这一赛道又蹦出两只超量首破年高的票： ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that stock selection depends on one's mindset, system, and temperament, with different strategies for short-term and trend-based investing [1] - The medical device sector is highlighted as being influenced by long-term catalysts such as medical innovation and anti-involution, currently positioned at a historical low, making it noteworthy [1] - A comprehensive review of the 97 stocks in the medical device sub-sector is recommended to gain a complete understanding of the category [1] Group 2 - The leading stock in the medical device sector is identified as Tianchen Medical, which shows a clear trend style and effective drawdown control, indicating strong confidence from major players [1] - Another notable stock exhibits a clear phase of narrow-range consolidation followed by a significant breakout, entering a main upward trend [1] - The overall interconnectivity within the medical device sub-sector is described as very strong, indicating it as a significant anchor for investment [1] Group 3 - On the broader market front, there is no significant concern as new strong sub-sectors continue to emerge, combined with previously strong anchors, which is a characteristic of a bull market [2] - Historical experience suggests that such bull markets typically last for 2 to 3 years [2]

Group 1 - The article suggests that the sectors of civil explosives, cement, and shield tunneling related to the Yajiang theme are unattractive, with a majority of players lacking the necessary qualities for investment [1] - The market is believed to be entering a second phase, with a reference to historical experience indicating that the starting point for this phase is in July [1] - Key industries discussed include innovative pharmaceuticals, upstream computing power (such as optical connections and PCBs), banking, consumption, and wind power, with cyclical basic industries expected to shine in the second phase [1] Group 2 - The article indicates that non-ferrous metals have shown significant recovery, which is seen as a characteristic of the bull market entering its second phase [1] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is linked to the CXO model, which is also breaking into the second phase, indicating a broader expansion of this sector [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks that show strong volume and a significant breakthrough into new highs, suggesting that only those with exceptional performance should be considered for investment [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the effectiveness of the "blue and green diamond" formulas for stock selection, highlighting that while some users have achieved significant gains, there is still a lack of clarity in defining the "green diamond" concept and an excess of noise in stock selection [1] - The "blue diamond" formula is based on previous low absorption formulas and the addition of RS divergence principles, emphasizing the importance of understanding the RS_D application, which reflects momentum and volatility [1] - The "green diamond" aims to unify the "Nine Swords of Poisonous Solitude," which consists of three styles and their variations, suggesting that understanding these styles is crucial for fitting volume-price patterns [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding dynamic principles, which is a major reason for the excess noise in the hand-crafted formulas, indicating that the author's efforts to share the "Beast Dynamics" system have not been fully grasped by the audience [1] - It references previous articles that detail how to use strength indicators for stock selection, particularly the combination of RSR and OVS to identify desired stock groups, with a focus on setting thresholds for stock selection [2] - The author suggests that personal engagement in the process of setting thresholds will enhance understanding of the dynamic system [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of continuous learning and critical thinking in any profession, highlighting that success is a gradual process rather than an instant achievement [1] Group 1 - The article mentions that several readers have expressed gratitude for the insights shared, indicating that the content has been beneficial [1] - It discusses the common belief that learning is essential, and that without effort and thought, one cannot progress in their career [1] - The text critiques the notion of "reading is useless" and "you must teach me," suggesting that the real issue lies in the lack of initiative to learn rather than the quality of education [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article draws parallels between military strategy and trading, emphasizing the importance of careful planning and understanding various factors before engaging in trading activities [1][2]. Group 1: Caution in Trading - The concept of "慎战" (Caution in War) highlights the necessity of careful consideration before entering the market, as reckless actions can lead to significant financial loss [1]. - Key factors to assess include national conditions, market timing, company performance, trader's skills, and trading rules [1][2]. - Traders should prioritize capital preservation and be prepared to remain in cash if necessary, waiting for the right opportunity to invest [2]. Group 2: Resource Management - "资战" (Resource Management) emphasizes the importance of capital as a resource in trading, advocating for strategic use of funds and proper position management [3]. - Frequent and unplanned use of capital can lead to prolonged exposure to risk and loss of confidence [3]. - Successful trading should aim for quick profits and utilize those gains to support further trading activities [3]. Group 3: Understanding Market Dynamics - The article discusses "形势" (Situation) and the importance of accumulating advantages and understanding market dynamics to maintain a favorable position [4][5]. - It stresses that having a strong strategy and understanding the market landscape is crucial for success [5]. - Traders should focus on their strengths and avoid unnecessary risks, waiting for opportune moments to act [5]. Group 4: Winning and Losing - "胜负" (Victory and Defeat) discusses the importance of positioning oneself to avoid defeat while seeking opportunities to win [6][7]. - Successful traders plan their strategies in advance and wait for the right moment to act, rather than rushing into trades [6][7]. - Knowledge of market conditions and the ability to adapt are essential for achieving success in trading [7]. Group 5: Psychological Factors - "夺心" (Winning Hearts) emphasizes the significance of understanding market sentiment and the psychological aspects of trading [8][9]. - Confidence in the market can drive trends, and traders must be aware of emotional fluctuations that can impact their decisions [9][10]. - The article suggests that effective trading involves not only strategy but also the ability to influence and understand the sentiments of others in the market [9][10].