MicroStrategy(US:MSTR) 美股IPO·2025-12-23 00:51Core Viewpoint - Strategy (MSTR.US), the largest digital asset reserve company, is preparing for a prolonged cryptocurrency winter by increasing its cash reserves to $2.19 billion and halting Bitcoin purchases [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Position and Actions - Strategy raised $748 million by selling common stock over a week ending December 21, following a $2 billion Bitcoin purchase in the previous two weeks, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to approximately $60 billion [3]. - The company established a $1.4 billion reserve to cover future dividends and interest payments, addressing market concerns about potential forced Bitcoin sales amid declining token prices [3]. - Strategy faces annual interest and dividend payments of about $824 million, while its software business generates insufficient free cash flow to cover these obligations [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Risks - Bitcoin has dropped approximately 30% since reaching a historical high in early October, while Strategy's stock price has plummeted over 50% [3]. - The company's key valuation metric, mNAV, is around 1.1, raising investor concerns about a potential shift from a significant premium to a negative value [3]. - MSCI is considering excluding companies with over 50% of their total assets in digital assets from its indices, which could impact Strategy's inclusion in major indices and lead to potential outflows of $2.8 billion if implemented [6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing low trading volumes and investor confidence is waning, with many withdrawing from Bitcoin ETF markets [6]. - Approximately $23 billion in Bitcoin options contracts are set to expire, which may exacerbate market volatility, with a prevailing bearish sentiment reflected in the options market [7]. - Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin may have completed its current four-year halving cycle, with potential support levels identified between $65,000 and $75,000 for 2026 [7].