【广发宏观王丹】12月EPMI量回落、价企稳

Core Viewpoint - The Strategic Emerging Industries PMI (EPMI) for December 2025 decreased by 3.6 points to 49.1, which is higher than the levels in December 2022 and 2023 but lower than the levels in other years since 2014 [1][4][7]. Summary by Sections Overall EPMI Performance - The EPMI's absolute level of 49.1 is the third lowest since data collection began in 2014, indicating a relative decline compared to historical averages [7][8]. - Among seven major sub-industries, three are above the expansion threshold of 50, while four are below, consistent with November's performance [4][8]. Key Sub-Indicators - Production volume, product orders, and export orders fell by 3.5, 5.4, and 3.0 points respectively in December [9]. - The demand decline was faster than production, leading to a significant increase in the production-to-order ratio, which reached 4.8 in December, compared to average values from 2021 to 2025 [9][10]. - The sales price index rose by 0.2 points, with notable increases in the new energy and new energy vehicle sectors, which saw price increases of 3.6 and 1.8 points respectively [9][11]. - The difficulty of obtaining loans increased by 2.9 points, indicating a slightly tighter credit environment for emerging industries compared to November [9]. Sector Performance - The biotechnology, new energy vehicles, and next-generation information technology sectors maintained high levels of prosperity, with biotechnology seeing a 2.7-point increase in its prosperity index in December [14]. - The new energy and new energy vehicle sectors experienced a decline in prosperity compared to October, but remained among the top three sectors [14]. - Other sectors such as high-end equipment, new materials, and energy conservation and environmental protection are in a contraction phase [14][15]. Future Outlook - The EPMI is expected to continue reflecting seasonal trends, with a slight decline anticipated in the manufacturing PMI for December, as historical data shows a tendency for decreases during this period [18]. - The overall economic environment remains subdued, with nominal growth stabilizing due to supply-side policies, while actual growth remains to be validated in the context of investment recovery [21].