美银：1970年以来第39次，美元出现“金叉”，还是极为罕见的那种

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent occurrence of a "golden cross" signal for the US dollar index on December 19, which historically indicates a strengthening of the dollar. This is the 39th occurrence of such a signal, with a notable historical context that suggests a high probability of dollar appreciation in the coming months [1][2][9]. Group 1: Golden Cross Signal Analysis - The dollar index (DXY) experienced a golden cross on December 19, where the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average, indicating a potential bullish trend [7]. - Historical data shows that after a golden cross, the dollar index has a 68-79% probability of rising within 20-60 trading days, with an average increase of approximately 1.22% [2][9]. - This specific golden cross is particularly rare, being the 16th occurrence since 1970 when the 200-day moving average was declining, which historically correlates with an 80% probability of dollar appreciation [4][10]. Group 2: Impact on Other Asset Classes - The S&P 500 index typically shows mixed performance in the initial phase after a golden cross, but tends to strengthen after 35 trading days, especially when the 200-day moving average is declining [6][14]. - The oil market reacts positively to the golden cross signal, with a 100% probability of price increases within 35 trading days following the signal, averaging a rise of 9.07% [6][14]. - In contrast, gold and 10-year Treasury yields exhibit a neutral response to the dollar's golden cross, with approximately 50% probability of price increases, indicating a lack of clear trend preference [6][14].