价值投资者如何穿越波动周期？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the balance between offensive and defensive investment strategies in a complex and volatile capital market, emphasizing the importance of value investing amidst current challenges [1]. Group 1: Low Valuation vs. Certainty - Low valuation and certainty are not mutually exclusive; they often complement each other, and the best investment choices should ideally possess both characteristics [3]. - An example of a low valuation with certainty is a leading company in the telecommunications sector, which had a market value of less than 700 billion HKD, around 400 billion HKD in cash, and annual profits of 100 billion HKD [3]. - The current optimal sectors for investment include resource products, energy, consumer industries, and AI applications [4]. Group 2: Identifying and Avoiding Value Traps - A value trap is defined by the sustainability of profits; if profits decline, the ability to recover is crucial in distinguishing between true value and a value trap [6]. - Historical examples of value traps include real estate stocks during 2021-2022, where declining land prices invalidated previous investment rationales [6]. - Continuous tracking and evaluation of investments are essential to avoid value traps, along with establishing internal questioning rules to reassess investments when they decline [8]. Group 3: Expanding Capability Circles and Investment Evolution - Value investing requires ongoing reflection and adaptation to changes in the underlying logic of investments, especially as the economic growth engine shifts towards technology and innovation [10]. - Continuous learning and team collaboration are vital for expanding the capability circle, allowing for better decision-making and knowledge absorption [11]. - The investment style of a firm may involve a systematic approach using models to enhance research efficiency and decision stability [13]. Group 4: Position Management and Market Outlook - Position management varies among investors; some adjust positions based on market conditions, while others maintain high positions based on long-term value perspectives [16]. - The market outlook remains optimistic due to significant capital waiting for investment opportunities, with AI's rapid development expected to profoundly impact the asset management industry [20]. - Future investment keywords may include opportunities arising from market discrepancies and consumer-driven growth, particularly in sectors like health and outdoor activities [21].