【招银研究|2026年度展望②】海外宏观与策略：美强欧弱、美股缓升

Overview - The article presents a macroeconomic outlook for 2026, highlighting a "strong US and weak Europe" scenario, with monetary policies diverging as the US is expected to lower rates while Europe maintains its stance [1][2]. Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The US economy is projected to maintain steady growth, supported by fiscal measures during the midterm election year, with GDP growth expected at 4.8% [2][5]. - Consumer spending is anticipated to rise, with retail sales growth reaching 4.5%, driven by strong consumption policies [2][5]. - Fixed asset investment is expected to recover to a growth rate of 1.8%, bolstered by increased fiscal spending and major project initiations [2][5]. - Inflation is projected to be mild, with CPI at 0.5% and PPI at -1.4%, leading to a nominal GDP growth of 4.3% [2][5]. Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive, with a target deficit rate maintained at 4.0%, corresponding to a deficit scale of 5.85 trillion [3]. - The total fiscal expenditure is projected to be 43 trillion, an increase of 1.6 trillion from the previous year, with potential for additional tools based on economic conditions [3]. - Monetary policy is anticipated to be moderately accommodative, with a possible OMO rate cut of 10 basis points to 1.3% and a reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points [3]. Group 3: Capital Market Trends - The domestic stock market is expected to grow, driven by improved liquidity and performance, with A-shares continuing to outperform [4]. - The bond market may experience low volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to rise slightly to 1.8% [4]. - In the international market, the 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to decline to around 4.0%, while US stocks and Hong Kong stocks are expected to rise [4]. Group 4: Global Economic Dynamics - The article emphasizes a continued divergence in economic performance, with the US benefiting from trade policies while Europe and Japan face challenges [1][8]. - Japan's economy may face stagnation due to inflation pressures, potentially leading to interest rate hikes, contrasting with the US and European central banks [1][8]. - The overall global liquidity may be impacted by Japan's monetary policy shifts, which could lead to renewed volatility in financial markets [1][8].