150欧元的刀终于刺向中国跨境电商

Core Viewpoint - The European Union has decided to eliminate the import tax exemption for cross-border packages valued under 150 euros starting in 2026, which will significantly impact Chinese cross-border e-commerce sellers [4][5]. Policy Changes - The EU will impose a temporary tax of 3 euros on each cross-border e-commerce package valued under 150 euros starting July 2026 [4]. - This policy's implementation has been moved up by two years, affecting many Chinese sellers who previously relied on this exemption to maintain high margins and rapid turnover [4][5]. Cost Implications - The removal of the 150-euro exemption is expected to increase overall operational costs by 5 to 10 percentage points due to additional compliance, declaration, and warehousing costs [8]. - Platforms may experience a short-term profit compression of around 10%, while sellers will face further margin pressure [8]. Market Reactions - In the short term, cross-border e-commerce platforms in Europe may adopt a strategy of maintaining prices to stabilize the market, potentially through subsidies and profit dilution [9]. - After the price adjustment period, overall prices in the European market are likely to rise by more than 5% [10]. Order Fluctuations - Price increases may lead to a decline in order volumes, creating a transitional phase from reduced orders to stabilized pricing in the first half of 2026 [12]. - A similar situation occurred in the U.S. market in 2025 when the $800 tax exemption was removed, leading to a price adjustment phase [13]. Strategic Adjustments - Cross-border e-commerce platforms are shifting their inventory and logistics strategies, moving away from low-stock direct shipping to more strategic inventory planning [15]. - There is a noticeable trend towards increased use of sea and land transport, reducing reliance on expensive air freight, which helps distribute shipping costs [15]. Local Partnerships - Many platforms are accelerating the establishment of warehouses in Europe and collaborating with local delivery services to reduce last-mile delivery costs [16][17]. - The cost of door-to-door delivery in Europe is approximately $3, while self-pickup options cost around $2 [17]. Survival of the Fittest - The changes brought by the tax policy will favor companies that can enhance compliance and supply chain efficiency, while smaller sellers relying on low-cost strategies may face significant challenges [18]. - Larger merchants with monthly revenues exceeding $300,000 are expected to absorb the cost increases more effectively than smaller sellers [18]. Industry Outlook - The early implementation of the tax policy indicates that Chinese platforms have been preparing for these changes, focusing on compliance and operational efficiency [19]. - The tax changes may lead to industry consolidation, with stronger, compliant platforms gaining a competitive edge while smaller, less compliant sellers may be eliminated [20][21].