杨瑞龙：加大逆周期调节与跨周期调节的力度

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current macroeconomic situation in China, characterized by a "strong supply and weak demand" scenario, and emphasizes the need for both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to stimulate demand and optimize supply [4][10]. Group 1: Counter-Cyclical Adjustment - Counter-cyclical adjustment focuses on total demand management through fiscal and monetary policies, aiming to stimulate demand with "more active fiscal policies" and "moderately loose monetary policies" [5][6]. - Local governments are facing significant fiscal deficits, which hinder their ability to implement central government stimulus policies effectively [6][7]. - A potential long-term solution to local fiscal deficits involves restructuring the fiscal relationship between central and local governments, although this may take time [7]. - Utilizing state-owned assets for revenue generation is proposed as a short-term measure to alleviate fiscal pressures on local governments [7][8]. - Future fiscal spending should also focus on "investing in people" to enhance social security systems, which can stimulate consumption [8]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Considerations - The article highlights the importance of actual interest rates, suggesting that while nominal rates may be low, actual rates remain high due to persistent low prices, which affects investment decisions [8][9]. - The need for monetary policy to promote reasonable price recovery is emphasized, as low price levels reflect economic stagnation [9]. - Structural monetary policies should support technological innovation and small to medium enterprises, aligning with the goal of building a modern industrial system [9][10]. Group 3: Cross-Cyclical Adjustment - Cross-cyclical adjustment aims to optimize supply structure and improve supply quality, focusing on long-term economic development and high-quality growth [10][11]. - Addressing excess supply and inefficient production is crucial, with a market-oriented exit mechanism proposed to eliminate zombie enterprises and reduce local government support for inefficient firms [10][11]. - Building a modern industrial system is essential for achieving high-quality development, emphasizing the integration of technology and industry [11][12]. - Transitioning from traditional growth drivers to new ones, such as technological innovation and improved population quality, is vital for enhancing potential growth rates [11][12]. Group 4: Synergy Between Policies - The article stresses the importance of aligning counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical policies to avoid conflicts and enhance efficiency in macroeconomic management [12]. - Deepening market-oriented reforms is necessary to stimulate microeconomic vitality and ensure effective policy transmission [12]. - Innovation and localized development of new productive forces are highlighted as key to driving growth in the digital economy [12]. - Managing expectations is crucial for boosting confidence and integrating counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical policies effectively [12].