黄金再度飞升，“货币贬值交易”杀回来了？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, reaching a historical high, indicating the reactivation of "currency devaluation trades" due to the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts and concerns over debt monetization [6][8]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Market Dynamics - Gold prices have surpassed $4,400 per ounce, with a return rate of 68% since 2025, while silver has also reached a historical high with a year-to-date increase of nearly 140% [6]. - The rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and expectations of further interest rate cuts [8]. - The geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Ukraine have enhanced the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [6]. Group 2: Currency Correlations - There is a growing correlation between low-debt sovereign currencies, such as the Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc, and the prices of precious metals [11]. - The strength of the Swedish Krona is linked to "currency devaluation trades," despite its historical volatility and lack of safe-haven status [12]. - The article highlights that while the US dollar appears stable, it is actually weak against a basket of currencies, despite its strength against the fragile Japanese Yen [12]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The surge in gold prices is partly driven by ongoing yen carry trades, where investors short the yen to finance long positions in higher-risk assets [12]. - The recent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan to 0.75% has not ended these carry trades, as the interest rate differential between Japan and the US remains significant [12]. - Japan's 10-year government bond yield has nearly doubled this year, reaching 2.08%, indicating a shift in the interest rate landscape [13].