碳酸锂价格突破12万

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate futures has surged, breaking through the 120,000 yuan/ton mark, driven by supply constraints and strong demand expectations in the market [2][3]. Supply Side Analysis - The recent public announcement regarding the environmental assessment of the Jiangxi Yichun mining project indicates that the mine will require multiple departmental approvals and a safety production license before resuming operations, which is slower than market expectations for short-term production recovery [3]. - The recovery of the Jiangxi Yichun mine is a key variable affecting market sentiment, and the announcement has reinforced expectations of supply contraction, leading to a rapid price increase [3]. - Regulatory measures have been implemented to mitigate excessive market volatility, including adjustments to trading limits for lithium carbonate futures by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange [4]. - The overall supply situation has improved as the pace of lithium mine expansion has significantly slowed after three years of low prices, coupled with regulatory measures in major production areas like Jiangxi and Qinghai [4]. - Recent efforts by Yichun City to clean up expired mining rights further emphasize the local government's commitment to the regulated development of mineral resources, suggesting that future supply releases will be more orderly and controllable [4]. Demand Side Analysis - The growth in demand is a crucial support for rising prices, with the global energy storage market expanding rapidly. According to GGII, global energy storage battery shipments are expected to exceed 650 GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 80%, while China's energy storage system shipments are projected to exceed 320 GWh, up over 88% [5]. - There has been a significant increase in overseas demand, with Chinese companies securing over 260 GWh in overseas energy storage orders from January to November, and leading firms like CATL and Ganfeng Lithium operating at full capacity [5]. - Industry expectations for future trends are optimistic, with Ganfeng Lithium's chairman indicating a potential oversupply of 200,000 tons in 2025, but a projected demand increase of 30% to 1.9 million tons in 2026, leading to a near balance in supply and demand [5]. - If demand growth exceeds expectations and reaches 40%, prices could potentially rise to 150,000 or even 200,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Experts have suggested that a price above 100,000 yuan/ton is reasonable for the healthy development of the industry chain, with predictions that lithium carbonate prices will remain above 120,000 yuan/ton in 2026 [5].