远川研究所·2025-12-23 13:12Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected resurgence of mechanical hard drives (HDDs) driven by the demand for cold data storage in the context of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, leading to significant price increases and a notable rise in sales volume for the first time in a decade [6][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The consumer electronics market has struggled to profit from AI advancements, with prices for memory and flash storage rising, impacting downstream products like smartphones and PCs [6]. - Mechanical hard drives, which had seen a decline in shipments for nearly ten years, experienced a sales increase in 2024, with average prices returning to levels not seen since 1998, resulting in a 50% increase in overall sales revenue compared to 2023 [6][12]. - Major HDD manufacturers, Western Digital and Seagate, have raised prices across the board, attributing this to increased demand from AI and data centers [8][12]. Group 2: Data Storage Needs - Data is categorized into "hot" and "cold" based on access frequency, with hot data requiring high throughput and cold data being less frequently accessed but larger in volume [9][10]. - Cold data, which includes backups and records, is primarily stored on HDDs due to their lower cost per GB compared to solid-state drives (SSDs), which are about seven times more expensive [11][20]. - The demand for cold data storage is growing rapidly as AI models generate vast amounts of data, leading to increased HDD demand and a supply shortage [11][12]. Group 3: Industry Trends - HDD manufacturers are not expanding production capacity despite rising demand, focusing instead on maintaining profits by prioritizing enterprise users over consumer products [11][22]. - The market share of consumer-grade HDDs is expected to decline significantly, with revenue contributions from Western Digital and Seagate dropping from over 20% to below 10% [22]. - The competitive landscape for HDDs is stable, as the cost reduction of SSDs has slowed, allowing HDDs to maintain a niche market in enterprise-level cold storage [20][22]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The article highlights a trend where semiconductor companies are prioritizing supply for larger strategic customers, such as data centers, over consumer products, as seen with Samsung and Micron [23][24]. - NVIDIA is also shifting focus from gaming graphics cards to data center GPUs, indicating a broader industry trend towards prioritizing AI and data center needs over traditional consumer markets [26].