必看，解读保险大佬们的26年展望

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of insurance capital's movements in the financial markets, particularly regarding their investment strategies and outlook for 2026 [3][5] - The article discusses the recent surge in financing balance, reaching a historical high of 24,997 billion, which may trigger selling pressure as it approaches the 25 trillion mark [1] - The article outlines a structured approach to discussing key topics, including interest rate judgments, the transformation of dividend insurance, duration gaps, bond allocation strategies, and overall equity market outlook [4][5] Group 2 - Interest rates are deemed the most critical factor in investment decisions, with a consensus among insurance companies that rates will remain low and stable in 2026, although some express caution about potential upward movements [6][7][8] - The transformation of dividend insurance is highlighted as a significant trend, with companies aiming to reduce liability costs and increase equity allocations, leading to a shift in investment strategies [10][14][15][16] - The article discusses the management of duration gaps, emphasizing the need for insurance companies to balance asset and liability durations to mitigate risks associated with interest rate fluctuations [17][18][20] Group 3 - The bond allocation strategy for 2026 is characterized by a focus on market fluctuations rather than a single-direction trend, with an emphasis on timing purchases during market peaks [21][22][23] - The concept of "break-even yield" is introduced, indicating the necessary investment returns to cover existing liabilities, with current break-even yields for existing policies below 3% [24][27][28] - The overall outlook for the equity market is described as cautiously optimistic, with insurance companies recognizing the necessity of equity investments to avoid asset-liability mismatches [29][30][33] Group 4 - The article notes that insurance companies are required to allocate 30% of new premium funds to the A-share market, although the actual investment may be slightly lower than this target [34][36][37] - The impact of recent adjustments to risk factors for specific investment sectors is discussed, with larger insurance firms indicating minimal effects on their investment strategies [38][40][41] - The article highlights the growing preference for high-dividend stocks, particularly in the Hong Kong market, as a key focus for insurance capital investments [44][47][49] Group 5 - The article mentions the anticipated strong performance of dividend insurance in 2026, driven by a low base from 2025 and an increase in demand for dividend products [55][56] - Insights into the insurance sector's approach to new energy vehicle insurance are provided, noting higher premiums compared to traditional vehicles due to increased risk factors [60][61]