中金：供给侧促消费的路径

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the shift in consumption promotion policies towards supply-side measures, focusing on enhancing the supply of quality goods and services while also addressing demand-side strategies to stimulate consumption [2][5]. Group 1: Supply-Side Consumption Promotion - The central economic work conference in December highlighted the need to "expand the supply of quality goods and services" and "eliminate unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector" to unleash service consumption potential [2][5]. - Supply-side consumption promotion will focus on two main areas: removing restrictions in the consumption sector and increasing the supply of quality consumption [2][5]. - An estimated market scale of approximately 3.9 trillion yuan (around 3% of GDP) may be affected by policy adjustments in 2024, with a potential 0.5 percentage point increase in final consumption growth for every 10% improvement in these areas [2][18]. Group 2: Policy Evolution on Consumption Restrictions - Recent years have seen a progressive evolution of policies aimed at clearing consumption restrictions, starting from the 2018 guidelines that emphasized stimulating consumption potential through systemic mechanisms [4][5]. - The focus has shifted to administrative restrictions, with the 2020 central economic work conference calling for the orderly removal of certain administrative restrictions on consumption purchases [4][5]. - In 2025, the removal of restrictive measures in the consumption sector became a key policy direction, with multiple meetings emphasizing the need to clear unreasonable restrictions in areas such as automobiles and housing [5][11]. Group 3: Key Areas of Policy Changes - In the automotive sector, significant changes include the cancellation of purchase restrictions in Hainan and the increase of purchase quotas for carless families in cities like Beijing and Tianjin [5][8]. - The real estate sector has seen cities like Beijing and Shanghai relax purchase conditions and eliminate limits on suburban housing [5][8]. - Cultural policies have also evolved, with an increase in the number of game licenses issued and the simplification of approval processes for touring performances [6][8]. Group 4: Increasing Quality Consumption Supply - The emphasis on increasing the supply of quality consumption is evident in the October "14th Five-Year Plan" which calls for expanding the supply of quality goods and services [14][15]. - Investment in consumption infrastructure and service functions is crucial, with support for projects in education, healthcare, and cultural tourism to address public service gaps [15][18]. - The article outlines specific consumer markets projected to reach significant scales by 2024, including elderly products (54 trillion yuan), smart connected vehicles, and consumer electronics [16][19]. Group 5: Market Scale and Growth Projections - The total market scale for various consumption sectors is estimated at around 3.9 trillion yuan, with significant growth expected in inbound tourism and other sectors [18][19]. - Specific sectors such as high-end medical services and childcare are projected to grow substantially, with the high-end medical market expected to reach 556.7 billion yuan in 2023 [19][20]. - The article highlights the importance of aligning supply-side policies with consumer demand trends to achieve a dynamic balance between supply and demand [18][19].