中金 | 光伏玻璃行业1：外销占比提升，盈利分化加大

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic glass industry is facing a decline in demand, leading to increased inventory days and a drop in prices to 11.5 yuan/square meter, with four leading companies nearing breakeven profitability while others are deepening losses [2][3]. Supply and Demand - By 2026, the capacity utilization rate is expected to further polarize, requiring a reduction of 5,000 to 20,000 tons of domestic photovoltaic glass production to achieve supply-demand balance. Domestic demand for photovoltaic glass is projected to decline by approximately 23-36% due to weakened component demand [2][5]. - The total demand for photovoltaic glass is estimated to reach 150 GW, necessitating the allocation of 8,800 tons of capacity for direct sales overseas. Companies with overseas customer bases are expected to maintain relatively good operating rates, while those with limited export capabilities may face increased operational pressures and potential cash flow issues [2][5]. Price and Cost - The average price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass is expected to stabilize next year, with a projected annual average of 13-13.5 yuan/square meter, following a 15.83% year-on-year decline to 12.59 yuan/square meter this year. Cost reductions are anticipated due to oversupply of raw materials [2][30]. Profitability - Leading companies are expected to see an improvement in profit margins, while second-tier companies may continue to face downward pressure on profits. The net profit for leading companies is projected to remain above 3 yuan/square meter due to increased overseas shipments [3][5]. Industry Dynamics - The polarization of capacity utilization is deepening, with glass exports becoming a critical survival factor. Domestic photovoltaic glass demand is expected to decline significantly, while overseas demand is anticipated to grow, necessitating adjustments in domestic production [5][29]. - The industry is experiencing a significant increase in inventory days, with the average reaching 35.92 days by December, indicating a potential oversupply situation as domestic demand weakens [17][18]. Policy Impact - Recent policies have aimed to control the production capacity of photovoltaic glass, prohibiting new capacity additions and enforcing stricter regulations on pricing to prevent below-cost sales. This is expected to stabilize prices and reduce competitive pressures in the market [13][35][40].