中金2026年展望 | 马来西亚：林吉特强势，新叙事催化增长

Core Viewpoint - Malaysia's economy is projected to grow at 4.7% in 2025, supported by a strong labor market and sustained consumer spending, despite external pressures from geopolitical factors affecting key exports [2][6]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Malaysian economy is expected to maintain resilience with a GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5.5% set for the 13th Malaysia Plan (2026-2030), driven by sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and tourism [3][12]. - The unemployment rate has dropped to a ten-year low, contributing to robust consumer spending [2][6]. - The overnight policy rate (OPR) is likely to remain at 2.75% through the end of 2025 and early 2026, as current monetary policy supports economic growth [12][19]. Group 2: Capital Markets - The FBMKLCI index underperformed compared to regional markets in 2025, primarily due to weak earnings growth expectations and a lack of new tech IPOs [4][23]. - Despite the Malaysian ringgit appreciating by 8.8% against the US dollar in 2025, the market valuation remains below the ten-year average, indicating potential for upward movement [4][32]. - Foreign capital inflow may provide support for the market, as the ringgit's strength enhances the attractiveness of Malaysian assets [36][40]. Group 3: Investment Themes - Key investment opportunities are identified in sectors driven by AI capital expenditure, subsidies, and policy initiatives, including: - Electrical and Electronics: The sector is expected to benefit from a doubling of electronic exports to 1 trillion ringgit by 2030, supported by the national semiconductor strategy [5][48]. - Digital Infrastructure: Major investments in data centers by tech giants are anticipated to boost demand in the power and construction sectors [5][48]. - Modern Retail: Government subsidy programs are expected to enhance consumer spending and support retail growth [5][48]. - Tourism Services: The 2026 Malaysia Tourism Year aims to attract 47 million visitors and generate 329 billion ringgit in tourism revenue, with government support for infrastructure and promotional activities [5][49].