美元出现“金叉”，极为罕见的那种

Core Viewpoint - The recent golden cross signal for the US Dollar Index (DXY) indicates a strong potential for the dollar to appreciate in the coming months, with historical data supporting this trend [1][4][6]. Group 1: Golden Cross Signal Analysis - The golden cross occurred on December 19, with the dollar index closing at 98.60, as the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average [4]. - Historically, after a golden cross, the dollar index has shown a 68-79% probability of rising within 20-60 trading days, with an average increase of approximately 1.22% [1][6]. - This particular golden cross is notable as it is the 16th occurrence since 1970 when the 200-day moving average was declining, leading to an 80% probability of dollar appreciation [3][8]. Group 2: Impact on Other Asset Classes - The S&P 500 index shows mixed performance initially after the golden cross, but typically strengthens after 35 trading days, especially when the 200-day moving average is declining [12]. - Crude oil reacts positively to the golden cross, with a 100% probability of rising 35 trading days post-signal when the 200-day moving average is also declining, averaging a 9.07% increase [12]. - In contrast, gold and 10-year Treasury yields exhibit neutral responses to the golden cross, with approximately 50% probability of rising, indicating a potential divergence in traditional safe-haven assets [12].