热点思考 | “返乡潮”提前了吗？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The current high level of human flow is not primarily due to a "return home tide," as the flow is stable rather than exhibiting the typical pulse-like increase associated with such a phenomenon [2][3][8] - The national migration index remains at a high level of approximately 15.3% year-on-year, contrasting with previous years where significant declines were observed post-National Day [2][8] - The recent decline in industrial production and infrastructure investment has led to reduced labor demand, prompting many workers to return home earlier than usual [2][8][19] Group 2 - The sustained high level of human flow is supported by several factors, including the introduction of autumn holiday policies, increased business travel, and warmer winter weather [4][5][33] - Multiple regions, including Sichuan and Zhejiang, have implemented autumn holiday policies that significantly boost residents' willingness to travel, with migration indices showing substantial increases compared to the first half of the year [4][33][38] - Business travel has also increased, with domestic and international flight operations showing year-on-year growth of approximately 2% and 10%, respectively [4][46][47] Group 3 - High levels of human flow are expected to drive service consumption, particularly in sectors like dining and accommodation, indicating a robust service consumption environment [6][64][100] - The divergence between the national migration index and retail sales growth suggests that service consumption may be more resilient than goods consumption [6][64][100] - There is a notable trend of consumption shifting from goods to services, influenced by factors such as urbanization and demographic changes, which may enhance demand for leisure and entertainment services [6][76][100] Group 4 - Looking ahead, while goods consumption may face challenges, the potential for service consumption remains significant, with estimates indicating a gap of nearly 3 trillion yuan in service consumption compared to potential levels [6][101] - Policies aimed at stimulating consumption are increasingly focused on the service sector, including initiatives like extended holidays and consumer vouchers [6][101] - The current economic environment suggests that service consumption growth may outpace that of goods, reflecting a long-term trend towards service-oriented spending [6][101]