贵金属续创新高，新能源延续强势：申万期货早间评论-20251224

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals continue to reach new highs, while the new energy sector remains strong. The U.S. GDP growth in Q3 exceeded expectations at 4.3%, marking the fastest growth in two years, while consumer confidence has declined for five consecutive months [1][2]. Group 1: Precious Metals - International gold has surpassed $4500, and silver has reached a historical high. The U.S. November CPI increased by 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1%, indicating a downward trend that may provide room for interest rate cuts. The labor market shows mixed signals with 64,000 new jobs added, better than the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [2][20]. - The long-term upward trend for precious metals remains intact due to factors such as weakened dollar credibility and central bank gold purchases [2][20]. Group 2: Oil - Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil exports reached a two-and-a-half-year high of 7.1 million barrels in October, up from 6.46 million barrels in September. The overall downward trend in oil prices is expected to continue [3][14]. Group 3: Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate contracts continue to hit new highs, with strong terminal demand. In November 2025, domestic power battery installations increased by 39.2%. Despite several new projects expected to increase supply, short-term supply pressure is relatively eased. Weekly lithium carbonate production rose by 47 tons to 22,045 tons [4][24]. - The weekly inventory decreased by 1,044 tons to 110,425 tons, with downstream inventory dropping by 1,253 tons. The pace of inventory reduction has slowed, but strong demand expectations may sustain strong replenishment intentions in the downstream [4][24]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. third-quarter GDP growth of 4.3% significantly exceeded market expectations, while the November industrial output and consumption growth were below previous values, indicating ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector [13]. - The central government's focus on stabilizing the real estate market and promoting infrastructure construction is expected to support economic recovery [13].