Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to maintain a moderate expansion in 2026, with a growth rate similar to the projected 3.4% for 2025, driven by strong global trade, declining inflation, and supportive monetary policies [2][3] - The growth engine is anticipated to shift towards investment, particularly in high-tech sectors like AI and semiconductors, as the "export rush" effect fades [2] - Major economies, including the US, are expected to see fiscal expansion, which will support growth [2] US Economic Forecast - The US economy is projected to accelerate from a growth rate of 2.0% in 2025 to 2.3% in 2026, fueled by strong business investment and potential tax cuts [3] - However, the labor market may remain weak in the short term, with unemployment rates expected to rise before improving later in the year [3] Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve's capacity for rate cuts in 2026 is expected to be limited, contrary to market expectations of multiple rate cuts, due to persistent inflation pressures [4][6] European Economic Projections - Europe's growth is forecasted to slow from 1.4% in 2025 to 1.1% in 2026, avoiding recession but facing challenges from US tariffs and competition from China [6] - Despite the slowdown, consumer and labor markets in Europe are expected to remain resilient, supported by increased fiscal spending in Germany [6] Risks to Global Economy - The global economy faces multiple risks, including geopolitical tensions, trade policy uncertainties, and potential financial market bubbles, particularly concerning AI investments and cryptocurrencies [6] China Economic Transition - China's economic growth target for 2026 is set between 4.5% and 5%, with a focus on "domestic demand-driven" and "innovation-driven" growth [7] - Exports are expected to maintain high growth but may contribute less to GDP due to diminishing "export rush" effects and potential trade frictions [7] - Investment is projected to increase slightly, with fiscal spending on infrastructure and a recovery in manufacturing investment [7][8] Monetary and Fiscal Policy in China - Macro policies in China are expected to remain supportive but not overly expansive, with a slight reduction in the fiscal deficit ratio [8] - Monetary policy is anticipated to be "moderately accommodative," with limited room for rate cuts [8] Strong Renminbi Policy - A "strong renminbi policy" has been established, focusing on enhancing the international status and credibility of the renminbi rather than merely pursuing currency appreciation [9][10] - Key pillars of this policy include improving productivity through innovation, maintaining macroeconomic stability, and expanding the use of renminbi in international trade and finance [10]
2026年全球经济展望，渣打银行最新发声！