早盘直击｜今日行情关注

Market Overview - The market experienced four consecutive days of gains before a slight pullback, closing with a doji candlestick pattern. Major indices like the Shanghai Composite, Shenzhen Component, Sci-Tech Innovation Board, and ChiNext saw minor increases, while others like the North China 50 and CSI 1000 faced slight adjustments. Overall, the market trend favored large-cap stocks. Investor enthusiasm has decreased as year-end approaches, leading to a general trend of reduced trading volume and consolidation in the market. It is expected that this consolidation pattern will persist for the next few weeks [1]. Future Outlook - December's uncertainty events are largely resolved, setting the stage for the spring market in the coming year. Key events include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, inflation and employment data releases, and the Bank of Japan's latest rate decision. Current indications from Fed and BOJ officials lean towards a neutral to dovish stance, alleviating some of the liquidity constraints that have hindered A-share market growth. After a prolonged period of sideways movement since October, conditions are now favorable for upward expansion. A recovery in the supply-demand dynamics of the mid-to-lower manufacturing sectors is likely in 2026, which could lead to a significant rebound in the earnings growth of A-share listed companies. The current consolidation phase is seen as an ideal preparation for the upcoming spring market [1]. Sector Focus - In December, sectors benefiting from dividends and price increases are expected to outperform, with short-term attention on banking, public utilities, coal, and non-ferrous metals. Consumer sectors may also gain traction due to event-driven factors. For 2026, technology remains a key focus, with particular attention on AI, lithium batteries, military industry, and robotics. Notable trends include: 1. The established trend in AI hardware, with a continuous increase in the token usage of major AI models, suggesting a peak in AI applications by 2026 [2]. 2. The ongoing domestic production and integration of robots into daily life, with product expansion from humanoid to quadruped and functional robots, creating opportunities in sensors, controllers, and dexterous hands [2]. 3. The trend towards semiconductor localization, focusing on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2]. 4. The military sector is expected to see a continued recovery in orders, with many sub-sectors like ground equipment, aviation equipment, and military electronics showing signs of bottoming out [2]. 5. The innovative drug sector is anticipated to enter a growth phase after nearly four years of adjustment, with positive net profit growth since Q3 2024 and an expected turning point in 2025, continuing an upward trend into 2026 [2].