大宗商品的故事，从来没有预告片：谁才是行情真正的“发动机”？

Core Insights - The article provides a comprehensive review of the commodity market in 2025, highlighting significant events and their impacts on various commodities, including oil, metals, and shipping fuels [2][3]. Commodity Index Review - January 10: The U.S. Treasury announced major sanctions against Russian energy companies, causing WTI crude oil to spike to $80.04 per barrel due to supply concerns [6]. - January 20: Trump's administration initiated tariff increases, particularly targeting China, leading to a decline in shipping-related fuel prices [6]. - April: The "reciprocal tariff" policy negatively impacted global economic expectations, causing WTI crude to drop to a low of $55.12 per barrel and LME copper prices to fall nearly 20% [6]. - June 13: Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets raised supply concerns, pushing oil prices to a yearly high of $78.4 per barrel [6]. - June 23: A ceasefire between Iran and Israel led to a rapid decline in oil prices as tensions eased [7]. - July: The "anti-involution" policy led to significant price rebounds in oversupplied commodities like polysilicon and industrial silicon, with polysilicon prices rising by 80% [8]. - October: Post-National Day, the "anti-involution" sentiment faded, leading to a decline in glass prices as seasonal demand did not materialize [10]. Key Commodity Highlights - Lithium Carbonate: Prices fluctuated significantly throughout the year, with a peak above 100,000 yuan per ton driven by supply concerns and increased demand from the energy storage sector [12][14]. - Aluminum Oxide: Prices were pressured by high inventory levels and a shift in supply dynamics, with a notable drop in prices during the first quarter [16]. - Polysilicon: Prices surged by over 80% in July due to policy expectations, but faced downward pressure as market realities set in later [20]. - Copper: Prices experienced volatility due to supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions, reaching new highs in late 2025 [23]. - Coking Coal: Prices rebounded significantly after hitting lows earlier in the year, driven by demand recovery and supply constraints [26]. Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes that commodity price fluctuations are influenced by a combination of macroeconomic narratives and micro-level events, indicating that true investment opportunities arise at the intersection of these factors [11].