招商银行研究·2025-12-24 09:27Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is expected to grow at a rate of 4.8%, characterized by stable external demand, improved internal demand, and price recovery [2] - Export growth is projected to reach 5%, driven by a marginal easing of international trade tensions and the resilience of China's industrial chain [2] - Retail sales are anticipated to rise to 4.5%, supported by strong consumer policies [2] - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to recover to 1.8%, bolstered by increased fiscal spending and the initiation of major projects [2] - Infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates are projected at 6.5% and 4.6%, respectively, while real estate investment is expected to decline by 13.6% [2] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is set to be more proactive, with a target deficit rate maintained at 4.0%, corresponding to a deficit scale of 5.85 trillion [3] - The broad deficit rate is expected to rise to 9.7%, with total fiscal arrangements increasing by 1.6 trillion to 43 trillion [3] - The structure of fiscal spending will focus on "investing in people," optimizing tax structures, and enhancing fiscal sustainability [3] Monetary Policy - Monetary policy is expected to be moderately accommodative, balancing long-term and short-term growth with risk prevention [3] - The OMO rate may be reduced by 10 basis points to 1.3%, and a reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points is anticipated [3] Capital Markets - The domestic stock market is expected to grow, driven by improved liquidity and corporate performance, while the bond market may experience fluctuations [4] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to rise slightly to 1.8%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may decrease to 4.0% [4] Foreign Trade - China's exports are expected to maintain resilient growth, with a projected annual growth rate of 5.0% for 2026 [22] - The trade surplus is anticipated to remain high, although its contribution to GDP growth may weaken compared to 2025 [28] Consumption - Retail sales growth is expected to shift from being policy-driven to being led by service consumption and structural recovery, with an anticipated growth rate of 4.5% for 2026 [49] - Service consumption is projected to become a major support force, while durable goods may show signs of demand exhaustion [50] Investment - Real estate investment is expected to decline by 13.6%, with sales volume and value significantly reduced compared to previous years [66] - Infrastructure investment growth is projected to rise to 6.5% in 2026, with a focus on enhancing the quality and efficiency of investments [81] - Manufacturing investment is expected to recover, with a projected growth rate of 4.6% for 2026, supported by improved external demand and policy incentives [95]