与基金经理闫思倩对谈：从新能源到机器人，我们如何寻找下一个巨变？

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, amidst the technological wave and fluctuations in growth stocks, investors need to identify genuine long-term value, particularly in the context of the evolving landscape of AI and humanoid robots [1]. Group 1: Industry Research as Fundamental Investment Logic - Humanoid robots have been in development since 1973, with significant advancements made by companies like Tesla, which introduced the Optimus prototype in 2022, marking a shift from concept to reality [4][5]. - The research into electric vehicles and the associated supply chain has been ongoing for over a decade, with a focus on the battery systems and their components, which are crucial for understanding the broader implications of technology in manufacturing [7][8]. - The entry of internet tech giants into the automotive sector has accelerated the development of the manufacturing chain, showcasing the synergy between advancements in technology and traditional manufacturing capabilities [8][9]. Group 2: Humanoid Robots May Experience a "Model 3 Moment" - The "Model 3 moment" for humanoid robots is anticipated around 2026, where sales could surpass 100,000 units, driven by diverse application scenarios [10][11]. Group 3: Rational Perspective on the AI Boom - The AI sector is currently experiencing a bubble, influenced by the oligopolistic nature of the tech industry, with significant capital expenditure projected to rise from 1% to 3% of GDP, nearing bubble thresholds [13][14]. - The growth in AI usage, as indicated by the increase in token access from 40 trillion to an expected 400 trillion, suggests that the industry is still in its early stages [14]. - Rapid technological iterations in the industry create more investment opportunities, particularly in emerging technologies like optical modules and silicon photonics [14]. Group 4: Continued Growth in New Energy Demand - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the new energy index is approximately 30 times, indicating potential for future growth as global electrification rates remain low at 20%-30% [18]. - The demand for lithium batteries is expanding into various sectors, including low-altitude economy, AI glasses, and data centers, suggesting a robust future for the industry [18]. - Emerging sectors such as nuclear fusion and commercial aerospace are highlighted as areas of long-term investment potential, especially as China's technological capabilities continue to advance [19].