圣诞假港股休市！“微型”港股类ETF或将复制国投白银LOF炒作风潮

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in trading of certain ETFs, particularly the Guotou Silver LOF and Guotou Ruiying LOF, highlighting the phenomenon of speculative trading driven by market dynamics and the implications of a temporary supply lock during the Hong Kong market closure [3][5][9]. Group 1: ETF Trading Dynamics - Guotou Silver LOF (161226.SZ) has seen a remarkable premium rate of 52.9% as of December 23, indicating intense speculative trading [3]. - The similar Guotou Ruiying LOF (161225.SZ) has also experienced two consecutive trading halts, with a premium rate exceeding 20%, showcasing the contagion effect of speculative trading [5]. - The trading activity is characterized by a lack of liquidity, as evidenced by Guotou Ruiying LOF's average daily trading volume being below 100,000 yuan prior to the recent surge [7]. Group 2: Market Mechanisms and Implications - A critical structural change is anticipated due to the Hong Kong market closure from December 24 to December 26, which will temporarily halt the subscription and redemption of Hong Kong stock ETFs in the A-share market, leading to potential price deviations from net asset values [9]. - Historical trends indicate that during such market closures, smaller ETFs often experience significant speculative trading, driven by the imbalance of supply and demand [9]. - The characteristics of ETFs that have previously been subject to speculative trading include smaller fund sizes, historical trading activity, and the underlying asset's long-term performance outlook [10]. Group 3: Historical Examples - Recent examples of micro ETFs that have been subject to speculative trading include the Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (159333.SZ), which rose by 17.3% during the holiday period before facing a sharp decline upon market reopening [11]. - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (159331.SZ) also saw a 14.6% increase during the same period, followed by a similar drop [12]. - Other ETFs, such as the New Economy ETF (159822.SZ), have shown significant volatility, with increases of 29.3% and 24.5% in early 2024, both exceeding a 20% premium rate [14].