禁摩与新国标“两头紧”，合规车推广难？

Core Viewpoint - The extension of the motorcycle ban in Shenzhen for three years is expected to exacerbate the challenges in promoting the new national standard for electric bicycles, leading to a decline in sales of compliant models while increasing demand for second-hand vehicles under the old standard [2][3]. Group 1: Impact of the Motorcycle Ban - The motorcycle ban in Shenzhen, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2028, restricts the operation of electric light motorcycles and ordinary electric motorcycles, which are classified as motor vehicles [2][4]. - The ban is a response to rising traffic accidents involving motorcycles, with 397 incidents reported in 2025, resulting in 95 fatalities, accounting for 43.8% of total traffic deaths in the city, with a year-on-year increase of 18.8% [9][10]. Group 2: Challenges of the New National Standard - The new national standard for electric bicycles, implemented nearly a month ago, has led to disappointing sales figures, as consumers are dissatisfied with the maximum speed limit of 25 km/h, which does not meet the demands for commuting and delivery services [3][4]. - Dealers are frustrated with the new standard's requirement that plastic usage in vehicles must not exceed 5.5%, as this has increased production costs due to the need for materials like magnesium and aluminum [3][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The classification of electric vehicles into three categories—electric bicycles, electric light motorcycles, and electric ordinary motorcycles—creates a complex market landscape, with the new standard only applying to electric bicycles, which do not require a driver's license [4][6]. - There is a significant consumer demand for higher speed options, leading to a gray market for modified electric bicycles that exceed the speed limit, which has historically outperformed compliant models [6][7][8]. - The current market situation has resulted in a "tight" scenario where the motorcycle ban and the new national standard limit the choices available to consumers, negatively impacting their willingness to purchase compliant two-wheeled vehicles [11].