李迅雷专栏 | 如何让物价合理回升：难点在哪里

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and strategies for achieving a reasonable recovery in prices, emphasizing that this has become a significant policy goal in China since the 2024 Central Economic Work Conference [1]. Group 1: Price Trends and Economic Context - The current cycle of price stagnation began in 2012, with China's Producer Price Index (PPI) entering negative territory since 2022, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has remained between 0-1% [2]. - From May 2012, China's PPI diverged from that of Europe and the US, entering negative territory for 4 years and 5 months until October 2016, primarily due to structural distortions in the economy and a significant increase in manufacturing output [2][5]. - The increase in China's manufacturing value added as a percentage of global output rose from 8.6% in 2004 to 22.3% in 2012, while the population's share of global numbers declined, indicating an oversupply of goods amid a shrinking consumer base [2]. Group 2: Supply-Side Structural Reforms - To address the prolonged negative PPI, supply-side structural reforms were initiated in 2015, focusing on reducing excess capacity in key sectors like steel and coal, driven by the need to balance supply and demand [5]. - The period from 2016 to 2017 saw the most significant push for these reforms, with a focus on deleveraging and reducing inventory and production capacity [5]. Group 3: Recent Economic Developments - After a brief recovery in PPI starting in October 2016, external factors such as the US-China trade tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic led to renewed declines in PPI, with the index entering negative territory again from late 2019 to the end of 2020 [9]. - The article notes that from 2012 to 2025, China experienced approximately 8.5 years of negative PPI, with persistent overcapacity being a fundamental issue [9]. Group 4: Challenges in Price Recovery - The current downturn in PPI since October 2022 is characterized by a shift from expansion to contraction in household balance sheets, coinciding with a downturn in the real estate market, which has compounded the issues of overcapacity and insufficient effective demand [14]. - The article highlights that the decline in production of certain goods, such as liquor, reflects broader demographic trends and consumption downgrades, complicating the path to price recovery [14][15]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations - The Central Economic Work Conference has emphasized the need to expand domestic demand, particularly through consumption, to facilitate price recovery [22]. - The article argues that increasing consumer demand is essential for price recovery, suggesting that measures should focus on enhancing employment and income levels, particularly for low- and middle-income groups [32][33]. - It is noted that the structural issues in income distribution and the ongoing real estate downturn present significant challenges to achieving a reasonable price recovery [48].