铜：节奏比方向更重要

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in copper prices, highlighting the expected supply dynamics and market behavior as the year transitions from 2025 to 2026, with a focus on the potential for price adjustments and the impact of seasonal factors on copper production and consumption [4][9]. Group 1: Copper Price Trends - As of December 23, copper prices have surged to $12,000 per ton, aligning with predictions made by major overseas institutions for January 2026 [4]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring trading behaviors around year-end and the beginning of the new year, as there may be accelerated profit-taking and risks associated with high prices [5]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The global supply of copper concentrate is expected to recover in 2026, with a projected growth rate of around 2%, translating to an increase of approximately 450,000 tons [6]. - The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to be the tightest in terms of supply, with a gradual easing expected in subsequent quarters as new projects come online [6]. Group 3: Domestic Market Conditions - Domestic copper prices have exceeded 95,000 yuan, with a significant increase in holdings reaching 640,000 lots, despite being in a seasonal low demand period [7]. - The article notes a divergence between rising copper prices and domestic supply-demand signals, with an increase in social inventory to 168,400 tons, which is nearly 70,000 tons higher than the previous year [7]. Group 4: Refinery Production and Export - The Chinese Copper Raw Material Joint Negotiation Group indicated a potential reduction in copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026, which may lead to a slowdown in domestic refined copper output growth [8]. - Exports of copper cathodes and related products have seen a significant increase, with November exports reaching 143,000 tons, and cumulative exports from January to November totaling 698,500 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 58.46% [8]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The article suggests that the first quarter of 2026 will be crucial for trading, with expectations of continued upward pressure on copper prices despite potential seasonal adjustments [9][10]. - The anticipated target price for copper in the first quarter is set at $12,600 per ton, indicating a bullish outlook for the market as it approaches peak demand seasons [10].