国泰海通｜策略：科技有色景气延续，服务消费需求提升

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a mixed economic outlook, with continued price increases in technology hardware and rising metal demand driven by emerging technologies, alongside expectations of monetary easing leading to higher non-ferrous metal prices. Meanwhile, domestic demand shows marginal improvement in service consumption, but the real estate and durable goods sectors remain under pressure [1]. Group 1: Economic Trends - The global AI infrastructure is driving demand in the electronics supply chain, leading to significant price increases in high-end memory chips, with DRAM prices for DDR4 and DDR5 reaching $56.9 and $26.7 respectively, reflecting increases of 12.1% and 1.8% [3]. - The service consumption sector shows signs of marginal improvement, with Shanghai Disneyland's crowd index increasing by 11.2% week-on-week and 56.2% year-on-year, and the Hainan tourism price index rising by 0.9% [2]. - The central economic work conference emphasizes the implementation of actions to boost consumption, suggesting potential unexpected policy space for consumption on both supply and demand sides by 2026 [1]. Group 2: Real Estate and Durable Goods - The real estate market remains weak, with a 21.5% year-on-year decline in transaction volume across 30 major cities, particularly in first and second-tier cities where declines are 36.3% and 23.2% respectively [2]. - Sales pressure in durable goods is evident, with average daily retail sales of passenger cars down 17% year-on-year, and domestic sales of household air conditioners dropping by 39.8% [2]. Group 3: Manufacturing and Resource Prices - The manufacturing sector maintains stable operating rates, with construction demand continuing to face challenges, leading to low price fluctuations in steel and building materials [3]. - Coal prices have significantly decreased, while international metal prices have surged due to expectations of interest rate cuts following a lower-than-expected U.S. CPI [3]. Group 4: Transportation and Logistics - Passenger transport demand shows a slight increase, with domestic and international flight operations up by 1.0% and 1.5% respectively, although long-distance travel demand has decreased [4]. - In freight logistics, there is a slight fluctuation in demand, with highway truck traffic increasing by 2.0% while railway freight volume decreased by 2.0% [4].