国泰海通｜宏观：美国经济的韧性与三重“K”型分化——2025年三季度美国经济数据点评

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy showed resilience in Q3 2025, driven by strong personal consumption, increased public spending, and enhanced export contributions, despite exhibiting a "K"-shaped divergence in income, business performance, and economic sectors [1][2]. Economic Performance - The annualized quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 was 4.3%, surpassing expectations of 3.3% and the previous value of 3.8%, indicating overall economic resilience [2]. - Key drivers of this resilience included: - Strong personal consumption supported by the wealth effect from capital markets, with major stock indices reaching historical highs [2]. - Increased government consumption and investment, particularly in defense spending and investments in companies like Intel, alongside a significant rise in the borrowing plan by the U.S. Treasury [2]. - A rebound in global economic activity that boosted U.S. exports, aided by trade agreements that reduced or eliminated tariffs [2]. "K"-Shaped Divergence - The economy displayed a pronounced "K"-shaped divergence characterized by: - Income disparity leading to consumption differences, exacerbated by immigration policies affecting employment rates among minority groups [3]. - A split in business performance, where large enterprises maintained a positive outlook while small businesses showed relative weakness, as indicated by the S&P Global Composite PMI and NFIB optimism index [3]. - A divergence in investment and growth between new and old economies, with strong performance in private non-residential investments, particularly in equipment and intellectual property, while construction investment growth declined [3]. Future Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to face short-term impacts from the government shutdown in Q4 2025, but overall resilience is anticipated to remain strong into 2026 [4]. - The shutdown is expected to have direct effects on government procurement and investment activities, as well as indirect impacts on income and industry approvals [4]. - A recovery is likely in Q1 2026 due to delayed demand release, sustained consumer spending, and new economic investments, alongside easing trade tensions and global economic recovery [4]. - The forecast remains for the Federal Reserve to implement 2-3 rate cuts in 2026, despite the strong economic performance, due to structural weaknesses in the labor market and potential changes in Fed leadership [4].