国泰海通｜海外策略：欧美股指成交显著放量

Market Performance - Developed markets outperformed last week, with MSCI Global index unchanged at +0.0%, MSCI Developed Markets up +0.2%, and MSCI Emerging Markets down -1.5% [1] - In the bond market, long-term rates in Japan increased while U.S. rates decreased [1] - In commodities, silver saw significant gains while soybean prices dropped [1] - The Chinese stock market saw gains in essential consumption, finance, and energy materials, while U.S. stocks in consumer discretionary and technology performed well [1] Trading Sentiment - There was a significant increase in trading volume for U.S. and European stock indices, while Hong Kong and A-shares saw weaker trading volumes [1] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong decreased and is at historically low levels, while U.S. investor sentiment increased and is at historically high levels [1] - Volatility decreased for Hong Kong, European, and U.S. stocks, while Japanese stocks experienced an increase in volatility [1] - Overall valuation for developed markets rose compared to the previous week, while emerging markets saw a decline in valuation [1] Earnings Expectations - Hong Kong's earnings expectations were slightly revised upward, with the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast adjusted from 2064 to 2065 [2] - U.S. earnings expectations remained stable, with the S&P 500 Index's 2025 EPS forecast at 273 [2] - European earnings expectations also remained stable, with the Eurozone STOXX 50 Index's 2025 EPS forecast unchanged at 330 [2] Economic Expectations - Economic sentiment in major markets declined to varying degrees last week [2] - The Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index decreased, influenced by the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on future rate cuts, lower inflation data, and disappointing employment figures [2] - The European Economic Surprise Index also saw a slight decline due to falling consumer confidence and geopolitical tensions [2] - The Citigroup China Economic Surprise Index dropped, affected by disappointing macro data and tightening external conditions [2] Capital Flows - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on rate cuts for 2026 was noted, with expectations of approximately two rate cuts remaining unchanged from the previous week [3] - Dollar liquidity tightened last week, with the SOFR-OIS spread widening [3] - Global micro liquidity saw significant inflows into China, the U.S., Japan, India, and South Korea, while flexible foreign capital flowed into Hong Kong stocks [3]