赵伟：综合整治“内卷式”竞争：背景、成因、影响及应对

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "involution" in the Chinese economy, highlighting its causes, impacts, and policy responses, emphasizing the need for structural reforms to promote high-quality economic development [3][4][5]. Group 1: Causes and Impacts of Involution - The current "involution" is characterized by long-term negative growth in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and low capacity utilization rates in mid- and downstream industries, which squeeze corporate profits and hinder industrial upgrades [3][4][5]. - The deep-rooted causes of this "involution" include the differentiation of old and new economic drivers during the economic transition period and the homogeneous and disorderly competition among local governments pursuing GDP and fiscal revenue [4][5][11]. - The "involution" phenomenon has created a spiral contraction cycle of "price-income-consumption," severely restricting healthy economic development and transformation [4][5]. Group 2: Policy Responses - Successful containment of "involution" is essential not only for stabilizing short-term economic growth but also for transitioning China's economy from factor-driven to innovation-driven, achieving high-quality development [5][6]. - Policy measures should focus on coordinated efforts from both supply and demand sides, combining growth stabilization with reform promotion [5][6]. - On the supply side, strategies include production adjustment, elimination of outdated capacity, and optimizing industrial structure to enhance product quality [5][6]. - On the demand side, there is a need to vigorously develop resident service consumption, release consumption potential through fiscal subsidies and social security improvements, and guide employment from manufacturing to services [5][6]. Group 3: Evolution of Anti-Involution Policies - Since mid-2024, high-level meetings have continuously addressed the need to combat "involution," with a clear policy commitment to prevent "malicious competition" [6][10]. - The 2025 government work report emphasizes the establishment of a unified national market and the need to eliminate local protectionism and market segmentation [7][10]. - The current anti-involution policies are characterized by a higher stance, broader coverage, and stronger synergy compared to previous supply-side reforms [10][11]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Background and Industry Characteristics - The macroeconomic environment is under pressure from continuously declining prices, with the PPI experiencing negative growth for 33 consecutive months, and industrial capacity utilization rates at historical lows [15][18]. - The profitability of industrial enterprises is under significant pressure, with many industries experiencing negative profit growth, particularly in mid- and downstream sectors [18][21]. - The phenomenon of "involution" is more complex and diverse compared to 2015, with competition shifting from traditional sectors to new areas, leading to lower capacity utilization rates in high-demand sectors [23][24]. Group 5: Recommendations and Future Directions - The article suggests that lessons from international experiences, such as industry consolidation and market clearing, could be beneficial in addressing the challenges posed by "involution" [31][32]. - It emphasizes the importance of combining total quantity policies with structural policies to effectively address the "involution" dilemma [34][37]. - Long-term strategies should focus on accelerating the development of the service sector to adapt to changing consumer preferences and demographic trends, thereby addressing the structural unemployment issues arising from the transition [38][40].