【宏观】关税扰动边际消退，美国经济增速回升——2025年三季度美国经济数据点评（赵格格/周欣平）

Core Viewpoint - The US GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 rebounded, primarily due to the weakening of the "import rush" effect and increased net exports driven by higher procurement from the US. Consumer spending also began to recover as tariff disruptions faded, with a 3.5% quarter-on-quarter growth marking the highest rate in 2025, contributing 2.4 percentage points to GDP growth [4][5]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - The initial value of the annualized quarterly GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 was +4.3%, exceeding expectations of +3.3% and the previous value of +3.8% [7]. - The initial value of the actual personal consumption expenditure growth rate for Q3 2025 was +3.5%, surpassing the expected +2.7% and the prior value of +2.5% [7]. Trade and Exports - The "import rush" effect continued to diminish in Q3, leading to a negative growth in imports. However, trade negotiations spurred increased procurement from the US, resulting in a +8.8% growth in goods exports, which contributed 1.6 percentage points to GDP growth [4]. Inflation - The initial value of the core PCE price index for Q3 2025 was +2.9%, aligning with expectations but higher than the previous value of +2.6% [7]. Future Outlook - The US GDP growth may face pressure in Q4 due to government shutdown impacts, but a significant rebound is expected in Q1 2026, potentially delaying interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5].