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Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in Pop Mart's market value and the underlying issues related to its IP strategy, particularly focusing on the Labubu character and its impact on sales and market perception [5][6][9]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Market Reaction - In August, Pop Mart reported that it earned as much in the first half of the year as it did in the entire previous year, with expectations of reaching 30 billion yuan in revenue [5]. - Following the report, Pop Mart's market value peaked at 450 billion yuan but subsequently fell by 44% over four months, resulting in a loss of 200 billion yuan in market capitalization [6]. - The company's aggressive expansion aimed at resolving supply shortages led to a loss of perceived scarcity, which became a key argument for bearish analysts [8]. Group 2: IP Dependency and Market Sentiment - Bernstein's report categorized Pop Mart as a "speculative IP" and highlighted that its success heavily relies on social media trends, suggesting that once the hype fades, sales will decline [9][10]. - Despite concerns about dependency on Labubu, Pop Mart has multiple IPs, with Labubu accounting for only 34.7% of revenue, indicating that other IPs are also performing well [10][14]. - The sales of other IPs like Molly have shown consistent growth, suggesting that the notion of IPs becoming "outdated" may not be accurate [15][22]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Valuation Issues - The article notes that Pop Mart's stock price volatility is not new, having experienced similar patterns since its IPO, where it reached a market cap of 130 billion yuan shortly after listing [25]. - The decline in market value is attributed to a lack of consensus on the potential market size for collectibles and issues such as an over-reliance on the Molly IP and imbalanced channel structures [26][32]. - The drop in prices for Labubu collectibles in the secondary market, along with increased production, has led to concerns about the diminishing scarcity and value of the IP [39][40]. Group 4: Strategic Positioning and Future Outlook - Pop Mart is positioned as an "IP operation company," differentiating itself from traditional retail models by focusing on proprietary and exclusive IPs to attract consumers [41]. - The ongoing debate centers around the longevity of Pop Mart's IPs, with some analysts comparing it to past fads like Beanie Babies, which eventually lost value [42][46]. - The company's strategy involves continuously discovering and nurturing new IPs with the potential for significant sales, aiming to create a sustainable business model [50][51].