【广发宏观吴棋滢】延续必要强度，优化发力路径：2026年财政政策展望

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the fiscal policy for 2025 is set to be "more proactive," leading to significant increases in both narrow and broad fiscal deficits, with narrow deficit scale increasing by 39% and broad deficit scale by 27% [1][12][13] - The government debt net supply is expected to reach a recent high, with a notable increase in the issuance pace of bonds, particularly in the first half of 2025, where net supply is projected to increase by 128% year-on-year [1][14] - Fiscal expenditure trends are expected to show a "U" shape in 2024 and a "front high and back low" pattern in 2025, aligning with economic and equity asset trends [1][13] Group 2 - One highlight in the fiscal sector for 2025 is the improvement in the structure of fiscal revenue, with a target growth rate for non-tax revenue set at -14.2%, indicating a commitment to reduce reliance on non-tax income [1][16] - Tax revenue is expected to perform well in the second half of the year, driven by active industries and tax policy adjustments, contrasting with the decline in non-tax revenue [1][17] Group 3 - Another highlight in the fiscal sector for 2025 is the expansion of debt resolution methods and the diversification of debt resolution tools, including the issuance of special new bonds and the use of local fiscal funds to pay for existing PPP project costs [2][19] - The debt resolution measures are expected to benefit small and micro enterprises by improving cash flow [2][19] Group 4 - A constraint on the economy in 2025 is the anticipated slowdown in infrastructure investment growth in the second half of the year, attributed to various factors including the front-loading of fiscal funds and the diversion of debt funds to debt resolution [2][22][23] - The decline in infrastructure investment growth is expected to be predictable, with narrow infrastructure investment growth dropping from 10.4% in the first five months to 0.1% by November [2][22] Group 5 - Looking ahead to 2026, the central economic work conference has indicated that a "more proactive fiscal policy" will continue, with expectations for a slight increase in fiscal intensity compared to 2025 [3][25] - The narrow target deficit rate is expected to remain at a relatively high level of 4.0%, with a small chance of increasing to 4.2%, reflecting a cautious approach to fiscal policy [3][25][26] Group 6 - The broad deficit is expected to see structural adjustments, with new special bonds projected to increase from 4.6 trillion yuan to around 5 trillion yuan, focusing on optimizing the use of local government special bonds [3][28] - The total government debt net supply is anticipated to be approximately 14.9 trillion yuan in 2026, an increase of about 5.4 billion yuan compared to 2025, indicating a continued expansion of fiscal policy [3][30] Group 7 - Fiscal revenue growth is projected to rebound to around 3%-5% in 2026, driven by price increases and the effects of tax policy adjustments [3][33] - The expected growth in fiscal expenditure is anticipated to slow to 3.9%, down from 5.9% in 2025, reflecting limited debt expansion [3][34] Group 8 - The main driver for fixed asset investment will be the 500 billion yuan new policy financial tools, which are expected to leverage credit significantly and support investment growth in 2026 [3][36] - The focus on effective investment will also include adjustments to special bonds and support for private sector participation in key projects [3][39] Group 9 - In the consumption sector, there is an expected structural shift towards new types of consumption and service consumption, with a focus on releasing the potential of service consumption [3][41] - The anticipated growth in durable goods consumption is expected to slow, while service consumption areas such as tourism and elderly care are projected to see increased demand [3][41] Group 10 - The debt resolution area is expected to expand to include non-hidden debts, with measures to clear debts owed by local governments to enterprises [3][43] - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for multiple measures to mitigate risks associated with local government financing platforms [3][43] Group 11 - The improvement of the local tax system is highlighted as a key focus for 2026, with potential reforms in consumption tax expected to accelerate [3][45] - The reforms aim to create incentives for local tax revenue generation and shift the competitive focus from production to consumption [3][45]