东吴汽车黄细里团队·2025-12-24 15:28Core Viewpoint - The bus industry represents China's automotive manufacturing sector becoming a global leader in technology output, with overseas market contributions expected to recreate a market equivalent to China within 3-5 years [4][15]. Group 1: Driving Factors for the Bus Industry Cycle - Timing: The bus sector aligns with the national strategy of "China's Special Valuation" and is a strong proponent of the "Belt and Road" initiative, having over a decade of overseas experience [4][15]. - Location: The technology and products of Chinese buses are at a world-class level, leading in new energy buses and competitive in traditional buses [4][15]. - People: The end of the domestic price war is expected to resonate positively, with demand recovering due to tourism and public transport renewal needs [4][15]. Group 2: Profitability Outlook - The absence of a price war domestically, an oligopolistic market structure, and better profit margins in overseas markets contribute to the potential for high profitability [5][16]. Group 3: Market Value Potential - The short-term goal is to challenge the market value peak from 2015-2017, while the long-term goal is to establish a new ceiling for the world's bus industry [6][16]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Yutong Bus is highlighted as a "model student" with high growth and dividend attributes, with projected net profits of 4.94 billion, 5.92 billion, and 7.03 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 20%, 20%, and 19% respectively [7][13]. - King Long Automobile is noted as the "fastest improving student," with significant profit elasticity, projected net profits of 440 million, 640 million, and 830 million yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth of 182%, 45%, and 28% respectively [8][13]. Group 5: Industry Performance Data - In November 2025, the overall bus production in China was 55,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 14.90% and a month-on-month increase of 10.47% [19][21]. - The wholesale volume for the same month was 53,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.78% and a month-on-month increase of 7.28% [21]. - The terminal sales for buses reached 49,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 7.91% and a month-on-month increase of 4.60% [22][21].