股市“四辩”︱2026年重阳投资策略报告

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the Chinese stock market rebounded strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high, indicating a highly differentiated market structure. The article explores how to seize new opportunities in 2026 from four perspectives: future debate, allocation debate, current debate, and strategy debate [1]. Future Debate: Will China Repeat Japan's Lost Decade? - China is unlikely to follow Japan's trajectory of economic stagnation due to its superior innovation capabilities and irreplaceability in the global market. The historical context shows that Japan's economic decline was significantly influenced by China's rapid rise, which diminished Japan's industrial advantages. Currently, the Chinese market has shifted from being perceived as "uninvestable" to having "strategic allocation value" [5][6][9]. Allocation Debate: Where Will Incremental Funds for the Stock Market Come From? - The incremental funds for the stock market are expected to come from asset reallocation by residents and financial institutions in a low-interest-rate environment. For the first time in history, the real estate market is transitioning from a source of capital diversion to a driving force for the stock market, leading to a bull market in Chinese stocks [10][11][12]. High-net-worth individuals and insurance funds are the main drivers of this asset reallocation, which is characterized by rational and gradual behavior rather than a rush to invest [11][12][14]. Current Debate: Can AI Capital Expenditure Expectations Be Met? - AI is viewed as one of the most significant technological revolutions since the industrial revolution, but the high profit margins and massive capital expenditures in the industry come with strong macroeconomic assumptions. The article highlights the potential challenges in reconciling the gap between latent demand and effective demand in the AI sector, which may become a critical issue in 2026 [17][19][23]. Strategy Debate: What Directions to Focus On? - The outlook for 2026 remains positive, but investors should temper their return expectations. The strategy emphasizes a defensive approach to preserve the gains from the 2025 bull market while seeking further opportunities. Key sectors to focus on include technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and advanced manufacturing, while also exploring opportunities in consumer, military, and real estate sectors that have been overlooked for a long time [24][25][26][27].