中国真的消费不足吗？其实多个维度已经接近甚至超过发达国家水平

Core Viewpoint - The narrative of "insufficient consumption" in China is fundamentally a misjudgment amplified by nominal indicators, as residents are not "buying less" but rather consuming at levels comparable to or exceeding those of developed economies in key dimensions [5][6]. Group 1: Consumption Analysis - Observations of per capita consumption in food, durable goods, and core services indicate that Chinese residents' consumption intensity is close to that of major global economies, with some areas even leading [5][7]. - The perception of "low nominal consumption" equating to "low real demand" is a significant error, as the macro data reflects a "weak" consumption not due to a lack of demand but rather shaped by long-term low prices and structural supply [5][6]. - The gap in consumption levels between China and major Asian economies is much smaller than surface data suggests when recalibrating macro statistical measures [5][6]. Group 2: Structural Consumption Insights - The focus should shift from "whether to stimulate consumption" to "where consumption upgrades will occur," anchoring the discussion in long-term variables such as urbanization, service supply capacity, and lifestyle evolution [6][23]. - The consumption landscape is characterized by a "nominally weak, physically strong" state, where low prices and a focus on basic supply create a perception of insufficient consumption despite high levels of actual consumption [22][20]. Group 3: Future Consumption Opportunities - Continuous urbanization, currently at approximately 65%, presents significant potential for new consumption demand as income levels rise and social infrastructure improves [24]. - There is a growing demand for preventive healthcare services and non-essential education, indicating areas for development as the population ages and urbanizes [25]. - High-quality, experience-centric services and products are increasingly sought after, particularly among younger demographics, suggesting a shift towards more experiential consumption [26]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical consumption downturns typically last around four years, with the current downturn having persisted for 3.5 years, indicating a potential for recovery in consumption patterns [29]. - The key to expanding domestic demand lies not in forcing residents to spend more but in creating stable expectations that encourage spending on better services and experiences [29].