Counterpoint Research·2025-12-25 06:14Core Insights - The article discusses the approval of L3-level conditional autonomous driving vehicles in China, specifically the Changan Deep Blue SL03 and BAIC Arcfox αS6, highlighting their operational limitations and the significance of this regulatory milestone [4][6]. Group 1: Regulatory Approval and Market Impact - On December 15, 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China approved Changan and BAIC's applications for L3-level autonomous vehicles, allowing them to operate under specific conditions [4][6]. - The approval is seen as a symbolic milestone that exceeds the immediate production value, with the first half of 2026 expected to be a critical window for mass production of L3-level autonomous vehicles in China [6][7]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) 14.2 system is anticipated to enter mass production in China between Q2 and Q3 of 2026, increasing competitive pressure on local automakers [6]. - Joint ventures represented by companies like BMW, GM, and Mercedes are likely to miss the approval window for L3-level autonomous production in 2026 due to internal communication and localization compliance challenges [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Approved Models - Both approved models, Changan Deep Blue SL03 and BAIC Arcfox αS6, are based on L2-level hardware but have been adapted for specific L3 operational design domains (ODD) [7]. - Changan's solution relies on pure visual perception and a rule-based planning and control system, reflecting the company's ongoing advancements since 2020 [10]. - BAIC's approach utilizes multi-sensor fusion and an end-to-end software architecture, optimized for L3 highway scenarios based on Huawei's commercial autonomous driving system [10]. Group 4: Future Projections - Additional models from companies such as BYD, FAW, GAC, NIO, and SAIC are expected to receive L3-level approval, with models from XPeng, Tesla, and those equipped with Huawei ADS 4.0 anticipated to launch in the latter half of 2026 [7].