全球生成式 AI 消费支出将大幅增长， 2030 年逼近 7000 亿美元，但能否满足投资者预期仍存疑

Core Insights - The report from Counterpoint Research highlights that consumer spending in the generative AI sector is rapidly reshaping the global technology landscape, with significant growth expected in both AI software and the hardware required to run it [5][6] - AI hardware is projected to maintain the largest share of overall consumer spending, driven by the integration of AI functionalities in personal devices [5][6] - The global generative AI smartphone shipment is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% from 2023 to 2030, with corresponding revenue growth at a CAGR of 16% [5][7] AI Software Market - The consumer AI software market is anticipated to expand significantly, primarily due to a substantial increase in user base, with monthly active users of AI dialogue platforms expected to reach nearly 5 billion during the forecast period [5][7] - The competition among large language model (LLM) providers is intensifying, and notable changes in market dynamics and shares are expected throughout the forecast period [7] Hardware and Software Dynamics - While AI hardware spending is expected to remain strong in the coming years, the success of the next generation of the AI ecosystem will largely depend on the growth of software spending [6] - High-end smartphones will continue to support revenue until 2030, but growth in shipments is increasingly driven by mid-range models, indicating a trend towards broader AI capability adoption [6] Market Growth Projections - Global generative AI consumer spending is projected to increase from $225 billion in 2023 to $699 billion by 2030, with an overall CAGR of 21% [7] - The AI dialogue platform segment is identified as the fastest-growing area, with personal assistant AI and content generation tools also expected to see significant expansion [7] Industry Challenges - A key question facing the industry is whether the rapid market growth justifies the unprecedented capital investments in the sector [8]