光伏周价格 | 光伏全产业链价格重心步入上行通道

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends in the photovoltaic industry, highlighting price stability and supply-demand dynamics across various segments including polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules. It emphasizes the strong pricing power of suppliers amid inventory pressures and market conditions. Group 1: Polysilicon - Supply side: Inventory pressure remains severe, exceeding 460,000 tons, but upstream companies are showing a strong willingness to raise prices due to industry self-discipline initiatives [4] - Demand side: The downstream crystal pulling segment has seen a significant reduction in production, leading to a contraction in demand. Buyers are resistant to price increases, resulting in a stalemate in the market [5] - Price trend: New quotes have tested above RMB 65/kg, but actual transactions depend on the price and cost transmission from the wafer segment. A gradual increase in polysilicon prices is expected due to strong seller push [6] Group 2: Wafers - Supply side: Wafer manufacturers are actively reducing production, and many are adopting a sell-limited strategy due to bullish market expectations, leading to a rapid reduction in inventory, which is expected to drop below 15GW [7] - Demand side: Following price increase expectations from a self-discipline meeting, downstream demand has surged, with leading battery manufacturers locking in large orders, resulting in strong buying support [8] - Price trend: Current transaction prices have rebounded to RMB 1.25, 1.35, and 1.55 per piece. The significant consumption of inventory has enhanced sellers' bargaining power, indicating strong potential for further price increases in the wafer segment [9] Group 3: Cells - Supply side: Battery inventory remains stable at 6-8 days. Due to industry self-discipline and rising raw material costs, manufacturers are showing reluctance to sell. To counter downstream resistance, further production cuts are expected to support price stability [10] - Demand side: Currently in the off-peak season, the module segment has not been able to extend price increases, leading to heightened tensions in the supply-demand dynamics, with limited acceptance of price hikes from the upstream [11] - Price trend: Driven by rising costs of silver paste and wafers, the current transaction price has reached RMB 0.32/W. Given the ongoing cost pressures, companies are determined to raise prices, with short-term peaks expected to reach RMB 0.34/W [10] Group 4: Modules - Supply side: The exit of outdated production capacity is accelerating, leading to increased market concentration. Under the dual influence of industry self-discipline and rising upstream raw material prices, the comprehensive cost of modules is being pushed up, with leading manufacturers raising quotes by RMB 0.02-0.04/W [10] - Demand side: Domestic and international demand continues to shrink due to the traditional off-peak season and construction constraints. The market is primarily executing previous orders, with very low acceptance of new price increases, resulting in a stalemate in new transactions [11] - Price trend: Short-term demand suppression due to the off-peak season makes price increases difficult, leading to a market state of having prices but no transactions. However, based on cost support and supply-side optimization, a price bottom is expected, with a rebound anticipated after the Spring Festival [12]