业务放缓持续，高估值下的AEHR需保持谨慎

Core Viewpoint - AEHR has shown a strong performance in 2025, with a stock price increase of nearly 36% year-to-date, outperforming the average of other semiconductor companies and achieving returns nearly three times that of Russell 2000 index peers. However, since October, the stock has retraced some gains, having previously risen over 80% in the first nine months of 2025 [1][4]. Revenue and Performance - Investors should be aware that AEHR's business model does not rely on a large volume of customers, leading to quarterly performance volatility. Currently, over 75% of revenue still comes from the top five customers, and order cancellations and delays are common due to limited penalties for breaches [4]. - In the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, revenue saw a year-on-year increase of 140%, but subsequent quarters experienced a significant decline, with the latest quarter showing a 16% drop. The forward-looking order backlog is stable at $15.5 million, but down 7% year-on-year [4][5]. Market Outlook - Due to weak order backlog growth, market consensus suggests that AEHR's revenue weakness will likely persist for several quarters, with recovery expected only in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, as demand in the power silicon carbide (SiC) market is anticipated to rebound [5]. - The slowdown in sales is also attributed to underutilization of manufacturing capacity, negatively impacting gross margins, which have dropped by approximately 1700 basis points year-on-year, now below 40% [9]. Competitive Position - AEHR's core competency lies in providing wafer-level and aging test systems, and the acquisition of Incal Technology has enhanced its capabilities, making it the only company globally that can offer aging test systems for high-power AI processors in addition to wafer-level technology [11][13]. - The flagship Sonoma series aging test systems have secured new orders and follow-up orders from large data center operators, indicating strong interest in testing new AI processors [19][21]. Financial Metrics - AEHR reported a net loss of $0.13 per share under GAAP last year, but is expected to return to profitability this year, with market consensus estimating earnings per share (EPS) at only $0.06. This low EPS base raises concerns about AEHR's current stock price of $22.61, which corresponds to a high forward P/E ratio of 376, significantly above the average of 40 for semiconductor equipment and materials stocks [21]. Investment Strategy - Given the current market conditions and the increase in short positions since November, a neutral positioning strategy is deemed appropriate. Short interest has risen by about 14% since November, with current short positions reaching 5.1 million shares, nearly 20% of AEHR's float [23].