人民币汇率持续升值：原因、影响及展望

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar and its implications for China's economy, particularly focusing on the factors driving this trend and its potential impact on exports and international trade [5][6][17]. Group 1: Factors Driving RMB Appreciation - The RMB has appreciated significantly against the US dollar, particularly since late November 2025, with the offshore RMB rate surpassing 7.0 on December 25, 2025 [5][8]. - Four main forces are driving the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar: 1. The weakening of the US dollar index, which has declined by 9.7% [5]. 2. The strengthening of the Chinese stock market, increasing the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets [10][12]. 3. Increased demand for currency conversion by export enterprises as the RMB appreciates, creating a positive feedback loop [12][13]. 4. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) guiding the RMB to appreciate in an orderly manner to maintain stability against a basket of currencies [13]. Group 2: Impact on Exports - Concerns exist that the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar may negatively affect Chinese exports; however, the actual effective exchange rate against a basket of currencies is more critical [6][20]. - The appreciation of the RMB can lead to reduced income for export enterprises and pressure on profit margins, but the nominal effective exchange rate remains favorable due to low domestic prices and high overseas inflation [17][20]. - The article emphasizes that the real effective exchange rate, which accounts for inflation differences, is crucial for understanding the competitiveness of Chinese goods in international markets [20][21]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The RMB is expected to maintain a strong position against the US dollar in 2026, with 6.8 being a potential key level, although some risks of correction may arise [7][22]. - The article suggests that the RMB's appreciation is appropriate given its current level is below the reasonable equilibrium, but warns against excessive appreciation that could disrupt businesses and financial markets [24][25].