美股IPO·2025-12-26 00:24Core Viewpoint - The AI boom is not cooling down but is expanding, with Nvidia and Broadcom leading a ten-year transformation in the industry [1] Semiconductor Industry Outlook - Global semiconductor sales are projected to grow by 30% year-on-year, potentially surpassing $1 trillion in annual sales by 2026 [3] - Companies with a "quantified moat by profit margin structure" are favored, including Nvidia, Broadcom, Lam Research, KLA, Analog Devices, and Cadence Design Systems as top picks for 2026 [3] - The total addressable market for AI data center systems is expected to exceed $1.2 trillion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 38% [3] Investment Considerations - The construction costs for AI data centers are high, with a typical 1 GW facility requiring over $60 billion in capital expenditure [3] - Current spending is seen as both offensive and defensive, as large tech companies must invest to protect their existing business landscapes [4] Nvidia's Position - Nvidia is operating in a "different galaxy," with its stock price rising over 40% this year, and its GPUs priced around $30,000 compared to typical chips at $2.40 [5] - Nvidia's free cash flow is expected to reach $500 billion over the next three years, and its price-to-earnings growth ratio (PEG) is approximately 0.6, making it relatively cheap compared to the S&P 500 [5][6] Broadcom's Role - Broadcom's stock has increased over 50% this year, transitioning from a component supplier to a pillar of AI infrastructure, with a market cap of $1.6 trillion [7] - Broadcom is seen as a key player in the AI boom, providing custom ASICs to major companies like Google and Meta, and has a target price of $450 from analysts [7] Market Leadership Insights - Companies chosen for investment are those with dominant market shares, typically between 70% and 75% [7] - Market leaders in technology sectors usually exhibit significant market share, which is considered a norm [8]