“疯狂白银”连涨5日再创新高，年内暴涨150%！伦敦现货白银的挤兑愈演愈烈！

Core Viewpoint - The London silver market is experiencing a severe physical squeeze, with investors selling paper silver contracts and buying physical silver, leading to a significant drop in the "one-year silver swap spread" to -7.18%, indicating extreme tightness in physical silver supply. This distortion is identified as the core driver of rising silver prices, and the upward trend in silver prices is likely to continue under pressure from leverage and increased arbitrage opportunities [1][3][5]. Group 1 - The one-year silver swap spread, a key indicator of physical silver supply tightness, has plummeted to -7.18%, indicating that traders are willing to pay a premium for immediate physical silver delivery compared to future delivery [3][5]. - Normally, the one-year silver swap spread should be positive to cover the costs of holding physical silver, but the current negative value suggests a significant shift in market behavior, with investors seeking physical delivery over paper contracts [3][10]. - As long as this spread remains below the "red line," upward pressure on silver prices will persist, although the market is uncertain about where supply and demand will find equilibrium [5][6]. Group 2 - The physical silver market is under immense pressure as the current spot prices exceed future prices, prompting buyers to demand physical delivery, which is causing silver to flow globally [9][10]. - Holding physical silver is challenging due to the weight and storage requirements, yet market participants are willing to incur these additional costs, reflecting a loss of confidence in paper certificates and a heightened demand for physical assets [9][10]. - The London market's risk is exacerbated by high leverage, with the volume of paper silver certificates far exceeding the available physical silver inventory, which could lead to a rapid "liquidation" if demand for physical extraction trends upward [11]. Group 3 - Global price discrepancies between silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) are creating arbitrage opportunities, incentivizing traders to move silver from London to Shanghai, further depleting London's already tight physical inventory [11].