碳酸锂：枧下窝矿复产延后，向上还有多少空间？

Core Viewpoint - The lithium price has surged past 130,000 yuan/ton due to strong downstream demand and delayed resumption of the Jiangxiawo mine, but after the recent increase, the benefits have largely been priced in, suggesting a potential for high-level fluctuations in the short term. The long-term outlook remains bullish with a recommendation to buy on dips, focusing on the resumption pace of the Jiangxiawo mine and marginal changes in downstream demand [4][17][18]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Since September 11, lithium prices have entered a significant upward trend, driven by robust downstream demand and supply constraints, with the price reaching a new high for the year [4]. - The market's optimistic outlook for future lithium carbonate demand, particularly due to the surge in energy storage needs, has shifted trading strategies from "selling on highs" to "buying on dips," amplifying price momentum [4]. - Trading volume for lithium carbonate futures contracts increased from 426,000 to 1,007,000 lots, a rise of 136.4%, indicating strong market activity [4]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Inventory Levels - The resumption of the Jiangxiawo mine has been delayed, with the earliest possible restart projected for January next year, impacting market expectations [5]. - Domestic lithium carbonate production has been increasing, with November output nearing 94,000 tons, and a cumulative production of 862,000 tons from January to November, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43.5% [5]. - As of December 18, total social inventory of lithium carbonate was 110,400 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 1,044 tons, indicating a slowing pace of inventory reduction [11]. Group 3: Demand Insights - Despite a seasonal decline in the battery production sector, energy storage demand remains strong, with many battery manufacturers' orders extending into the first quarter of 2026 [12][15]. - The sales growth of electric heavy trucks has been significant, with a year-on-year increase of 183.3% in the first nine months of the year, contributing to an estimated demand for lithium carbonate of approximately 56,000 to 64,000 tons [16]. - The overall demand for energy storage is expected to continue growing, supported by favorable policies and increasing penetration of renewable energy generation [15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - In the short term, the market is expected to maintain a tight balance between supply and demand, with low inventory providing support for lithium prices [17]. - The long-term outlook suggests a narrowing of the surplus ratio, with projections indicating a surplus of only 5.4% by 2027, which could lead to a higher long-term price equilibrium for lithium carbonate [18].